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UAE sees big drop in birth rate; fertility to slightly improve in coming decades, says UN
Doctors in the country have cautioned that the lifestyle choices of the residents are one of the key factors in this decline
- PUBLISHED: Tue 4 Feb 2025, 10:52 AM UPDATED: Tue 4 Feb 2025, 9:47 PM
The UAE's fertility rate has declined significantly over the past 30 years, but it is expected to improve slightly over the next three decades, according to a recent UN report.
The World Fertility Report 2024 revealed that the fertility rate of live births per woman dropped from 3.76 in 1994 to 1.21 in 2024. However, there are projections suggesting a slight rise to 1.34 live births per woman by 2054 in the UAE.
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Proactive steps
The government has taken proactive steps in this regard by establishing the Ministry of Family and upgrading the Ministry of Community Development to the Ministry of Community Empowerment.
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These changes aim to promote family formation, empower families, strengthen their cohesion, and fertility rates particularly among UAE nationals.
Additionally, the Department of Community Development – Abu Dhabi (DCD) has introduced a programme featuring six initiatives to support growth of the Emirati family which included six initiatives to support UAE Nationals to marry and raise children, build and grow families, and contribute to family and societal cohesion.
During a virtual session of the Federal National Council in January 2025, citizens emphasised that reduced working hours and longer maternity leave could help improve fertility rates, as many mothers reported that long workdays left them with little time for family life and planning for more children.
Reasons
Doctors in the UAE have been cautioning that residents' lifestyle choices are one of the key factors behind a decline in fertility and birth rate.
Estimates by Frost and Sullivan, a global consultancy, showed that by 2032,97 per cent of couples in emerging markets, including most countries in the Middle East and Africa, will struggle to conceive naturally.
Sophie Smith, founder and CEO of Nabta Health, said the reasons for the decline in fertility rates in the UAE are likely similar to the rest of the world – primarily lifestyle choices, the prevalence of chronic health conditions, environmental pollution, and exposure to endocrine disruptors.
“The UAE government has launched a number of initiatives recently that could do a lot to boost fertility rates over the coming decades. One example is the UAE Quality of Life Strategy 2033, an ambitious initiative launched to position Dubai as a global leader in terms of quality of life and enhance its status as the world's preferred destination to live, work, and visit,” she said.
Smith noted that UAE citizens now have increased awareness and proactive family planning, including fertility preservation options such as egg-freezing, as well as an increased focus on male fertility factors, which globally account for 40-45 per cent of all infertility cases. “These trends are helping to offset a preference for smaller families and delayed parenthood.”
She said: “UAE citizens are increasingly opting for more comprehensive fertility testing – both men and women – due to greater awareness in general about reproductive health and the impact of ageing on fertility, increased accessibility to a wide range of flexible diagnostic and testing options, and cultural shifts driven by policies such as mandatory pre-nuptial genetic testing, and workplace initiatives, such as fertility health check-ups and preventive care options.”
A global norm
The UN's advanced unedited report added that fertility levels of less than 2 births per woman are becoming the global norm. However, it warned that very low fertility leads to population decline and an ageing society.
The situation is no different in neighbouring Gulf Arab countries. The fertility rate in Saudi Arabia, the biggest country in terms of population in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, saw its fertility rate drop from 5.16 live births per woman in 1994 to 2.31 in 2024. It is projected to drop further to 1.85 over the next three decades.
Similarly, the fertility rate in Oman dropped from 5.36 live births per woman three decades earlier to 2.51 last year. In Kuwait, the rate dropped from 3.27 in 1994 to 1.51 in 2024 – the lowest in the Gulf region.
In Qatar, the rate fell to 1.72 in 2024 from 3.66 in 1994. Bahrain saw fertility at 1.8 in 2024 as against 3.29 in 1994.
1.0 birth rate in 4 countries
The UN report revealed that the global fertility rate in 2024 was 2.2 births per woman on average, down from around 5 in the 1960s and 3.3 in 1990.
The rate is projected to continue to decline, reaching the replacement level of 2.1 in 2050 and falling further to 1.8 births per woman in 2100.
In 55 per cent of all countries and areas with more than two-thirds of the global population, the fertility level is below 2.1 births per woman. This group crosses all regions and income groups and includes some of the world's most populous nations, such as India, China, the US, Brazil and the Russian Federation.
It said 1 in 6 countries and areas – 17 per cent – had fertility levels above 2.1 in 2024 but are projected to fall below this level within the next 30 years. The most populous countries in this group are Indonesia and Bangladesh.
In more than 1 in 10 countries and areas globally, fertility is now below 1.4 births per woman. In four countries – China, South Korea, Singapore and Ukraine – it is below 1 per cent.
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