Iran-Israel conflict: UAE expert says ceasefire a 'remote possibility'

The possibility of a ceasefire in the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel remains a “remote possibility” in the immediate future, according to a UAE expert. Dr Kristian Alexander, a professor and senior fellow at the Rabdan Security & Defence Institute (RSDI) in Abu Dhabi said that diplomatic efforts face serious obstacles.

“The logic of escalation is still dominating both Israeli and Iranian strategic thinking,” he said. “For Israel, the entry of the United States into the conflict provides unprecedented military backing to achieve a long-standing goal: to cripple or destroy Iran’s nuclear programme and reduce the regional threat posed by the so-called ‘Axis of Resistance’. Tehran, for its part, sees the US strikes as confirmation that this is not just an Israeli campaign, but a broader assault on its sovereignty and regime survival.”

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On Sunday, the conflict between Iran and Israel escalated as the US joined forces with Israel and bombed three Iranian nuclear sites. Iran responded by saying that the United States will be “solely and fully responsible for the dangerous consequences” after the attack.

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Shift of dynamics 

According to Dr Kristian, the direct involvement of the United States through precision strikes marks a dramatic escalation in an already volatile conflict. “The decision by President Donald Trump to authorise strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure shifts the dynamics entirely,” he said.

“This US intervention will likely embolden Israel militarily and politically. However, it also risks triggering a broader, multi-front confrontation. Iran may now feel justified in escalating its response, not only directly, but also through its network of regional proxies, including Hezbollah, Shiite militias in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen," he added.

He added that this could stretch the conflict far beyond the Israel-Iran binary and “pull in countries that have so far remained on the sidelines”.

Gulf countries like the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Bahrain on Sunday expressed their concern and warned of major consequences after the US dropped bombs on Iranian nuclear sites amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran.

Dr Kristian said that decades of animosity and a profound lack of trust between the US, Israel, and Iran make genuine negotiations extremely difficult. “The US' withdrawal from the JCPOA previously, and now direct military action, has eroded any existing diplomatic pathway,” he said. “That said, there are scenario under which a ceasefire could become more imminent- the economic toll and risk of oil market collapse may spur key international stakeholders like China, India, and the EU to exert diplomatic pressure. But as of now, the prospects for a ceasefire are limited by the belief, that more can be gained through continued confrontation.” 

Importance of de-escalation 

He added that it was in the best interest of everyone to de-escalate. “Iran could widen the conflict geographically and put countries like Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen at greater risk of devastation or collapse,” he said. “American military installations in the GCC, are now potential targets. Iran may calculate that limited strikes against these bases could undermine US willpower without triggering an overwhelming response.” 

He added that a prolonged conflict would severely impact the global economy, primarily through soaring oil prices and disruption of trade. “For Middle Eastern countries, especially those heavily reliant on oil exports or facing direct threats, the economic consequences would be dire, leading to capital flight, reduced foreign investment, and increased poverty,” he said.

He added that the widespread conflict would “inevitably” lead to a massive humanitarian crisis, with large-scale displacement, civilian casualties, and destruction of infrastructure. Neighbouring countries would bear the brunt of refugee flows and the strain on resources.

Nasreen Abdulla

nasreen@khaleejtimes.com

Nasreen Abdulla is a Special Correspondent covering food, tech and human interest stories. When not challenged by deadlines, you’ll find her pulling off submissions on the jiu jitsu mats.