The infrastructure gap beneath global shipping

By 2030, the global ship-repair industry will be shaped less by newbuilding cycles than by a structural shortage of capacity, tightening environmental regulation and a vast retrofit backlog. Demand, says Sandeep Seth, Group CEO of Goltens Worldwide, is already running ahead of supply and that imbalance is set to define the decade.

“Worldwide ship repair is forecast to grow at between six and eight per cent compounded from here on,” he says. “But there simply isn’t enough repair infrastructure to maintain the existing fleet, let alone handle the scale of retrofitting that is now required.”

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China today accounts for close to half of global ship-repair capacity, followed by Turkey at roughly nine per cent. Europe and the US, Seth notes, are no longer major repair hubs. The result is a structural gap. “Demand is ahead of supply. That means sustained utilisation, pressure on yards, and the need for new hubs to emerge.”

It is this imbalance that underpins Goltens’ strategic push into Batam, Indonesia, a move that reflects broader shifts in Asian maritime economics. As Singapore evolves away from labour-intensive repair towards higher-value maritime services, Batam is emerging as a natural extension.

“Ship-repair hubs are always evolving,” Seth says. “Batam comes in at just the right time, and the right size, the right skills, and the right cost base, with proximity to Singapore.” At just 45 minutes by ferry, Batam allows operators to tap Indonesian labour availability while remaining closely integrated with Southeast Asia’s busiest maritime centre.

The economics matter. Inflationary pressures and skills shortages have tightened margins across the industry. “You need access to skills, and that’s no longer guaranteed everywhere,” Seth says. “In Batam, you can still train local talent, stay competitive, and generate the margins required.”

But capacity alone will not define the next decade. Regulation is rapidly reshaping the market, particularly in Europe, where carbon-intensity rules are forcing owners to act. Under the International Maritime Organization’s Carbon Intensity Indicator framework, thousands of vessels are now rated C, D or E, effectively non-compliant without intervention.

“There are 25,000 to 30,000 vessels that need to take action,” Seth says. “They are emitting at levels that are no longer acceptable.” For many owners, scrapping is not an option. Retrofitting is.

This is where Goltens has positioned itself as an end-to-end sustainability partner. It is a role the company has been building towards for more than a decade. “We advise, analyse, monitor, and then deliver turnkey retrofits,” Seth says. “Not just installing systems, but making sure they actually help vessels comply.”

The company works across a wide spectrum, such as ballast-water treatment systems, scrubbers, shaft generators, fuel-optimisation technologies, air-lubrication systems and carbon-capture solutions. Alternative fuels are increasingly part of the conversation too. “If a shipowner is looking at methanol or ammonia, we can support engine conversions and control systems,” he says.

Goltens’ track record matters in a market still in flux. Since 2010, the group has delivered more than 1,700 ballast-water retrofits and around 200 scrubber installations. That experience has earned trust at a moment when many owners remain undecided. “Customers are still in the analytical phase,” Seth says. “They are asking, which system do I install, will it really comply, and does the investment make sense?”

Technology is another accelerant, though Seth is cautious about overstatement. Digital twins and predictive-maintenance tools are already in use, helping owners optimise routes, fuel consumption and maintenance schedules. “We are working with clients in Europe, Asia and the Middle East on these tools,” he says.

Artificial intelligence, however, remains nascent. “What we’ve seen in the last ten years, the industry hasn’t seen in the last century,” Seth says. “There’s a lot of data, but the analytics are still developing.” He believes sector-specific models rather than generic large language systems will ultimately prevail. “You can’t just drop big technology onto marine operations and expect it to work. It has to be customised.”

Owners, he adds, are rethinking asset lifecycles. “In the past, things were fixed when they broke. Now it’s about extending asset life, reducing total cost of ownership, and deciding how much capex and opex makes sense.”

That thinking also explains Goltens’ selective involvement in high-spec sustainability projects such as the Captain Arctic, a low-emission exploration vessel powered largely by wind and solar. “We don’t want to become a commercial newbuilding yard,” Seth says. “But we do want to support first-of-their-kind vessels where our engineering skills add value.”

The same philosophy underpins projects in solar- and battery-powered vessels for short routes, particularly in the Middle East, where port and ferry decarbonisation is gaining momentum. “This isn’t just about vessels,” Seth says. “It’s about ports, shore power, and the whole ecosystem.”

Looking towards 2030, the risks are clear. There is insufficient infrastructure, regulatory uncertainty and capital-allocation hesitancy among owners. The growth drivers are equally stark. “The fleet has grown 60 to 70 per cent since 2008,” Seth says. “There are over 100,000 vessels globally, and not enough capacity to maintain or retrofit them.”

The conclusion is blunt. “The demand is there,” he says. “The supply is lagging behind. And that gap will define this industry for the next decade.”