With fierce competition and unpredictable conditions, the Dubai resident remains a strong contender for a breakthrough victory, says Cowen
Well, round three of the 2025 HERO Dubai Desert Classic at the Majlis Course, Emirates Golf Club, didn’t go as expected.
The wind was the big factor today, gusting up to 31 kilometres per hour. It threw a lot of players off their rhythm, making it a tough day for many. Only nine players out of the 79-man field managed to break 70—something almost unheard of on the Majlis Course.
Looking at the leaderboard, only two players in the top nine are in the top 100 of the Official World Golf Ranking: Tyrrell Hatton (17) and Ryan Fox (87). Really? This is not the usual look for a Rolex Series leaderboard.
One question everyone is asking me is: Who’s going to be tomorrow’s champion at 5 pm?
Hatton's Confidence
My bet is on Hatton—he’s already won in the UAE, claiming the 2021 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship at Abu Dhabi Golf Club.
But don’t count out Dubai resident Ewen Ferguson. Despite a disappointing 74, he’s still in the mix and could have a life-changing day ahead.
Rory McIlroy taking the cross as he tees off tee 1 in round 3 of the Dubai Desert Classic. - Supplied photo
I hear his Emirates Golf Club membership was approved yesterday, which must give him a boost after getting the bad round out of the way. A Ferguson win would make for quite the story, wouldn’t it?
Then there's Daniel Hillier, the 26-year-old New Zealander, who’s currently the sole leader with just 18 holes left to play.
Rory Lurks
And let’s not forget about Rory McIlroy. Sitting six under and seven shots off the lead in a tie for 12th, can Rory mount a charge on the final day?
Something I’ve been thinking about: is it too early to have a Rolex Series event on the calendar? This is the first competitive tournament of 2025 for many players, coming off a long winter break.
Still, I predict that if a European player takes the trophy tomorrow, it will be hard for them not to make Luke Donald’s automatic top six for Team Europe at the Ryder Cup in September.
One stat that really caught my attention this week is the disparity in OWGR points between the Dubai Desert Classic and The American Express on the PGA Tour: 50.68 points for the winner of the PGA Tour event versus 34.36 for the winner in Dubai. I understand there’s been a shift in points priority towards PGA Tour events, but I honestly thought the two would be closer in value.
Tour Concerns
This must be concerning for the DP World Tour, especially with their flagship event in the first quarter of the season.
As for my player, Guido Migliozzi (Italy), he’s having a solid week, sitting tied for 10th after rounds of 66, 73, and 70, at seven under par.
The weather forecast for the final day looks challenging. The sun will rise at 7:06 am, with sunny skies expected. The greens firmed up significantly today, and tomorrow we’ll see winds around 19 km per hour, which will make it tricky for everyone—affecting both good and poor shots in different ways.
Final-round tee times will begin at 7:05 am, with the leaders going off last at 11:35 am in three-ball groups. The final pairing of the day will be Ewen Ferguson, Tyrrell Hatton, and Daniel Hillier.
There are so many potential storylines for the final round, and I expect plenty of drama. In my opinion, there will be a lot of movement at the top of the leaderboard before the Dallah Trophy is awarded to the 2025 Dubai Desert Classic champion.
For all scores, visit: www.EuropeanTour.com
At 74, Cowen is widely regarded as the world’s leading golf coach, boasting the most professional tournament wins by his players. He operates Peter Cowen Academies at both Dubai Creek Golf Resort and Emirates Golf Club, with his headquarters based at Rotherham Driving Range in England.
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