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Why Germany is waiting for Kerry in White House

Over 80 per cent of the electorate are rooting for the Democratic challenger Kerry rather than the present incumbent in the White House. The presidential and vice-presidential debates have found them cheering every intervention on the Democratic side while booing the Bush-Cheney duo.

This is only symptomatic of the wider mood of the Europeans. Nearly all Europeans are waiting for and almost looking forward to a change of guard in Washington following the presidential election. The new entrants to the EU are actually becoming increasingly sceptical of the Bush strategies vis-à-vis Iraq.

Transatlantic relations are at the root of the present disaffection that has been simmering for well over two years, largely stemming from the perception of a 'mix of nationalism, arrogance and unilateralism' that passes for policy across the Atlantic. No surprise that it is largely related to Iraq and the influence of the neo-conservative policymakers in Washington.

It has become common parlance among the Germans to say that they are not anti-American but merely anti-Bush. Bush has become a brand name here that is not marketable as he stands for a right-wing ideology that is not shared widely in Europe. And the collective build-up of transatlantic insults and bad faith under the Bush administration has fuelled the impression that there cannot be an improvement in German-US relations unless there is a change in the White House.

Having said that, it is not to assume that all will be perfect harmony under a Kerry administration. A recent survey by the German Marshall Fund's annual Transatlantic Trends Report has revealed that the depth of the transatlantic divide is based not so much in basic values, such as belief in democratic principles, the market economy and the rule of law, but in reaction to common threats, support for the use of military force, and in more subtle social values. In other words, there has been a fundamental shift in transatlantic relations that is in the nature of a systemic rupture.

A Kerry victory will have the chancellery in Berlin and those in other parts of Europe heaving a collective sigh of relief. Kerry's talk of building partnerships with America's allies is sweet music to Berlin's ears. Even if the new administration is constrained, as it might well be, to continue Bush's policies in Iraq, Israel and Afghanistan for some more time, Berlin believes that the policies will be articulated in a different, more palatable tone.

True, there will be situations when Berlin will again be put on the spot. Germans can refuse to send troops to Iraq at the moment, arguing that this will only help Bush in his re-election, but a similar request by Kerry will find chancellor Schroeder equally awkward in his ability to change his stance vis-à-vis Iraq. In fact, this German policy predates the Bush administration and almost coincides with the fall of the Berlin Wall when Europe as a whole was devalued strategically in American eyes. Since then, America and Europe have changed their worldview while retaining a tenuous link.

The plus point for Kerry is that Democrats have traditionally believed in maintaining good ties with the European Union, which incidentally will be found more confident and assertive while dealing with a new administration. The newly expanded 25-member bloc will get a new constitution shortly and will gradually be spreading its wings to take on more global responsibilities. A new Democratic administration will view the EU as a real partner.

However, there are some opinions out there that are worth giving a hearing to. They hold that a second Bush term would actually help reunite Europe. A return of Bush may eventually help to close the 'old Europe' and 'new Europe' camps and heal the wounds caused by a rift over Iraq.

Talking Turkey: Talking of Europe will certainly bring up the case of Turkey that is now in the spotlight. Its efforts to join the EU have raised a hornet's nest among its members, not least in Schroeder's Germany where it has threatened to open a fresh rift in his Social Democratic Party. While the chancellor has been a vocal supporter of opening accession talks with the EU, misgivings are rising among the party's grassroots about the prospects of the 70-million-strong Muslim nation joining the EU.

For Germany, as for many Europeans, the debate about Turkey does ultimately revolve around the tricky subject of immigration. But Germany has officially recognised the need to accept the enlargement of the EU to include Turkey as a higher priority than the staid clamour for a highly integrated 'core Europe'. Germany's interior minister has openly stated that Turkey's admission to the European Union would 'show the world that it is possible for Muslims and the West to live together on the basis of the values of the enlightenment and the UN Charter of Human Rights.'

On the other hand, it is argued, rebuffing Turkey could destabilise the country, with potentially dire consequences.

Public opinion in Germany, home to some 2 million Turkish nationals, is evenly split on the issue. A recent poll found 45 per cent supported Turkish membership while 46 per cent opposed it. Concern is especially high among the young and the unemployed, who fear an inflow of migrants if and when Turkey joins the EU.

But a new and unpredictable element has entered European politics in that there has been a growing tendency to submit fundamental decisions to referendums. So voters may ultimately say what they think of the issues or have the last laugh.

Kabul mayor?: Improved security in Afghanistan has ensured that Afghan president Hamid Karzai is no longer the mayor of Kabul, but has political influence over most of the country, says German foreign minister Joschka Fischer. The comment came after German parliamentarians voted to extend by another year the deployment of some 2,000 troops in Afghanistan, thus underlining Berlin's increased role in international peacekeeping missions.