Why a missile race threatens our very existence

Moscow and Beijing take their nuclear weapons programmes increasingly seriously. For China, that has included increased investment in ballistic missile submarines, which could enable it to join the elite club of nations that always have at least one submarine offshore.



By Peter Apps (Centrepiece)

Published: Sun 11 Aug 2019, 8:40 PM

Last updated: Sun 11 Aug 2019, 10:41 PM

For those who worried about the risk of the Cold War ending in catastrophe, the early- to mid-1980s were the most alarming period since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis.
On both sides of the Iron Curtain, paranoia and alarm about the adversary's intentions was the order of the day. The United States and the Soviet Union were both deploying a new generation of medium-range nuclear rockets which experts worried could make it easier for a limited atomic war to escalate out of control.
The result, after almost a decade of diplomacy, was the 1987 Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which culled an entire generation of missiles with a range of 500-5,500 km (310-3,400 miles). It forced Moscow and Washington to rely on longer-range ballistic missiles and air-launched weaponry to maintain their nuclear "balance of terror", making it easier for each side to track each other's actions and get early warning of an attack.
This crucial confidence-building measure opened the door to further detente between the superpowers and ushered in three decades in which worries of global nuclear war all but vanished. But last week, the treaty finally collapsed completely amid wider international tensions, particularly between Washington, Moscow, and Beijing.
The result may be a resumption of the kind of medium-range missile arms race the original treaty halted. In some respects, the race is already underway and this looks set to complicate the United States' relations with not only its potential foes but also with some of its allies. Many allies are desperate for US protection but are reluctant to host medium-range missiles that could put them in the firing line in a conflict.
Australia has become the first major US ally to rule out hosting intermediate-range missiles although Australian leaders said they had not been asked directly by the US if they would do so. South Korea quickly followed suit. The collapse of the treaty had been a long time coming. Both the Obama and Trump administrations have long accused Russia of breaching the condition of the treaty, particularly with what Nato says is Russia's deployment of a land-based cruise missile system Washington refers to as the SSC-8. The Pentagon told reporters last week that the US now intends to test a new medium-range cruise and ballistic missile of its own over the summer. The fact that it has them ready is a sign that Washington sees the treaty as unsalvageable.
Both those missiles will carry only conventional warheads, Washington says, but potential enemies are likely to be concerned that they could be adapted to carry atomic weapons. Russian and to a lesser extent Chinese medium-range rockets and missiles are widely believed to be nuclear-capable.
Moscow has also stepped up its military sabre-rattling and has held a series of weapons tests. The same is true of China, which was not part of the original 1987 treaty. US President Donald Trump said last week he hoped the treaty could be replaced with a new tripartite agreement including Beijing. But Chinese officials were quick to dismiss the idea, saying the Chinese atomic arsenal remained substantially smaller than that of either the US or Russia.
Russia and the US each have about 1,550 deployed large strategic nuclear warheads capable of wiping out a city. The number is limited by the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty known as New START. China has fewer than 300. But in public comments in May, the head of the US Defense Intelligence Agency, Lieutenant General Robert Ashley, said he expected China to double that number within a decade and to substantially increase its number of smaller "tactical" nuclear weapons. Last year, he said, China launched more ballistic missile tests than the rest of the world combined.
While Russia continued to abide by the terms of New START, it was taking steps to be able to dramatically increase its number of warheads in a time of crisis, he said. It is likely that Russian activities included low-yield nuclear tests banned by the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, he said.
What is clear is that Moscow and Beijing take their nuclear weapons programmes increasingly seriously. For China, that has included increased investment in ballistic missile submarines, which could enable it to join the United States, Russia, Britain and France in the elite club of nations that always have at least one submarine offshore providing continuous hard-to-detect deterrence against any foreign nuclear strike.
Moscow has also been pouring resources into its larger nuclear force, including launching new submarines and both larger and smaller rockets. For much of the last decade, Western analysts have also been concerned by Russian interest in what they described as a "de-escalatory nuclear strike", a plan under which Moscow would conduct a single nuclear strike after winning a more limited conventional conflict to force its enemies to back down.
The loss of the intermediate range treaty may be only the beginning. The New START strategic arms treaty is due to expire in February 2021, and it remains unclear whether Washington and Moscow will be able to overcome their differences to extend it. That would remove restrictions on the largest nuclear weapons, and could spark an even wider arms race - or something worse.
-Reuters
Peter Apps is a writer on international affairs, localisation, conflict and other issues


More news from OPINION
India is the market for the next decade

Opinion

India is the market for the next decade

Corporate earnings appear to be on the cusp of revival. The earnings growth is expected to be more than 50 per cent between FY20 and FY22; earnings growth momentum is likely to continue at more than 25 per cent annually over the next couple of years.

Opinion4 days ago

An assault, a trial and a road to nowhere

Opinion

An assault, a trial and a road to nowhere

A day after a leading south Indian actress opened up on social media about her life as victim and survivor of a sexual assault in 2017, a groundswell of support is forming in the film industry of her home state, Kerala.

Opinion1 week ago

Can US elections be made safe from Capitol-type mob violence?

Opinion

Can US elections be made safe from Capitol-type mob violence?

It’s understandable that Biden may be reluctant to prosecute his 2020 election opponent and potential opponent in 2024. Even if neither man runs in 2024, prosecution of a former president by his successor would be a huge distraction from Biden’s efforts to govern, would divide the country even further, and perhaps lead to even worse violence than a year ago.

Opinion1 week ago

Digitisation set to revolutionise healthcare

Opinion

Digitisation set to revolutionise healthcare

The future of healthcare is shaping up in front of us. You will see humanoid robots in many hospitals — many will be unseen, sitting inside computers and providing diagnosis and treatment protocols to help the doctors. Wearables and trackers with remote monitoring has already become quite popular and will increase significantly.

Opinion1 week ago