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US Nuclear Umbrella and the GCC: From Prevention to Protection
We are now in the beginning of 2010. The deadline set for Iran to agree to the international community's demands regarding opening its nuclear programme to inspections and embracing transparency measures, including complete cooperation with the IAEA, is approaching fast.
- PUBLISHED: Tue 5 Jan 2010, 9:27 PM UPDATED: Thu 2 Apr 2015, 10:19 AM
- By:
- Dr Mustafa Alani (Gulf Angle)
If we are to believe the Obama administration's repeated statements that the final days of 2009 are the last deadline, then we are only a few days away from the introduction of a new US policy toward Iran.
So far, there has been no signal from the Iranian government side to encourage the belief that Iran's leadership will offer, in the final hours of this year, a meaningful concession to help defuse the crisis.
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On the contrary, Iran has been showing defiance and behaving in a manner that indicates its indifference and lack of concern about the issue.
Despite its claims that 'all options are on the table,' we in the Gulf region believe with reasonable certainty that the Obama administration has 'No option on the table' or at least no option strong enough or effective enough to force major Iranian concessions or a drastic change of mind in Tehran.
The basic issue for us in the Gulf region is that this administration seems to have no capability to apply the required pressure on Tehran. It has no tools for non-military pressure, such as tough and comprehensive economic and diplomatic sanctions, and apparently does not have the will for a military solution either.
The people of the Gulf will be the first potential victims of an untouchable nuclear Iran. We likely will be the target for intimidation and bullying, and therefore we have the right to hold the US and the international community as entirely responsible for the failure to deal with Iran's illegal and illegitimate nuclear ambitions.
In July of this year, we were deeply concerned by the worrying signals from Washington. Speaking in Thailand in a pre-arranged television interview, the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton stated that “The nuclear clock is ticking,” and that Tehran has continued to pursue its nuclear programs.
In her statement, Secretary Clinton made two fundamental miscalculations. The first was when she offered the Gulf States a “US defence umbrella” if Iran emerged as a nuclear power. Placing the cart before the horse - that is precisely what the US Secretary of State did by offering the states of the region a “US defence umbrella.” Our perception is that she was trying to give us advance warning that the US would not be able to stop Iran from acquiring military nuclear capability, or might not even try to do so.
She was hinting that a nuclear Iran could be a foregone conclusion. Clinton's use of the term “defence umbrella” was synonymous with the term “nuclear umbrella,” and her statement thrilled no one in the Gulf region.
Mrs. Clinton made the second miscalculation when she stated that “it's unlikely that Iran will be any stronger or safer because they won't be able to intimidate and dominate as they apparently believe they can, once they have a nuclear weapon.”
Indeed, an Iran armed with nuclear capability will be stronger than any of its neighbors and will intimidate and dominate the region, and Washington will have to readjust to the new realities.
The Secretary of State's statement, which may have sought to deter Iran, must be taken into account in the Gulf's strategic calculations. It must be seen by the Gulf leaderships as a “wake up call.” Instead of investing in a 'Prevention Policy' that works seriously to prevent Iran from violating its commitments under the NPT and acquiring nuclear power, the statement indicates that the US is now considering the 'Protection Policy' with its promise of providing the Gulf States with US protection from a nuclear Iran.
The US talk of 'the day after strategy' is premature and worrying. Such talk signals to us, rightly or wrongly, that the US has already, or in its own way, come to terms with the inevitability of a nuclear Iran. Therefore, our New Year message to Mr. Obama is: Mr President, do not replace Prevention with Protection.
Dr Mustafa Alani is Director of Security and Defense Department at the Gulf Research Center, Dubai