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Uneasy calm in Syria

However, it seems like there is not much hope that any concrete movement towards conflict resolution will follow this cessation in hostilities. In fact, just on the first day of the truce, which marked the Eid Al Adha holiday, security forces dispersed protesters in Deraa province by opening fire on them. Apparently, protests had broken after morning prayers in many towns of the southern province.

This unrest obviously has the potential to cause a series of retaliatory actions from both sides, making the prospect of a successful ceasefire bleak in the coming days.

Even though both sides agreed to temporarily lay down their arms during the occasion of Eid Al Adha, they have exhibited their reluctance in unconditionally embracing the ceasefire. The Syrian state has made the ceasefire conditional, saying that it reserves the right to retaliate to any rebel attacks. And while the rebels have agreed to an armistice, they have still demanded Assad to release thousands of political detainees.

So is there any real point of this ceasefire, considering that it’s highly likely neither the state nor the rebels will refuse to compromise on their core points of contention?

The two sides have demonstrated great intransigence till now. The Syrian regime has tenaciously clung to power and has not hesitated to eliminate its enemies through the most brutal means to ensure its survival. Whereas, the rebel forces, factionalised and poorly armed as they might be, still know that now there is no turning back. For them, a compromise with the regime is tantamount to suicide.

Thus, the international community will have to choose between the two sides fast. Lakhdar Brahimi, the UN and Arab League envoy for Syria, needs to stop negotiating with the Syrian regime, and start putting strong pressure on it to allow for a political transition. What is needed is coercive diplomacy at the moment, not polite exchanges with Assad.