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Israel’s siege of the autonomous territories and the boycott by international donors of the Palestinian Authority are making matters worse. Militant factions in the Gaza Strip are taking out their frustrations on each other through shootings, kidnappings and violent intimidation.
Eventually, violence could spread to every refugee camp, town and neighbourhood, leading to one of two outcomes. The security forces could reverse the election results by force, as the Algerian leadership did in the early 1990s, at the cost of tens of thousands of lives. Or, as in Iran, a fundamentalist victory could silence all secular opposition forces. Those in Washington who predict the downfall of the elected Hamas government within three months should consider that such a scenario could also destroy whatever stability exists in Israel and Palestine, as Hamas’s leaders have repeatedly threatened.
To overcome the current impasse, a national dialogue has begun among the various political parties, under the auspices of Abbas. The participants should remember that the strength of the Palestinian cause is in the unity of its people and the universality and justness of its goals. They must work together to present a united front in preparation for future negotiations with the government of Israel. Representatives of the Palestinian private sector have already come up with a new initiative to break out of the current standoff and provide a framework for long-term strategy. It stipulates resuming negotiations with Israel; forming a national unity government; and reforming the Palestine Liberation Organisation, which, unlike the West Bank and Gaza Authority, represents the Palestinian people everywhere and conducts peace negotiations with Israel on their behalf.
Paradoxically, the best way for the Palestinians to escape Israel’s dictates is to learn the lessons of Israel’s own national unity governments. Before the 1967 war, in the aftermath of the 1982 invasion of Lebanon, and after the failure of the 2000 Camp David negotiations, leaders of Likud and Labor established coalition governments to face external challenges and bridge deep internal divisions. Humility and compromise are paramount for any national government to succeed. This could be a national unity government of technocrats that emphasises state-building, or a highly politicised coalition government that stresses liberation from occupation.
In either case, Palestine needs a leadership that puts national allegiance above its party loyalties and plows patiently toward a viable and livable Palestinian state. To that end, Hamas must forswear all suicide bombings, which have only weakened its cause and given Israel the necessary justification for more oppression and destruction. Second, it should support the unification of all of armed factions. Last, it must accept the Arab peace plan that stipulates recognition of Israel in return for total withdrawal from the 1967 occupied territories and a just, negotiated solution for the refugee problem.
For its part, Fatah must learn how to share power after decades of political monopoly, which means incorporating Hamas into the security and political spheres. Second, it must allow Hamas a fair share in the PLO and in defining the framework and guidelines for negotiation strategy with Israel.
Third, any negotiated settlement must be put to a referendum, as Abbas told the European Parliament last week. Palestinians have every right to point the finger at Israel and the West, and at Arab duplicity, but if they fail to unite at this critical stage, they will only have themselves to blame for their misfortunes. Meanwhile, Arab governments and Islamist opposition parties are watching the Palestinian experience with great interest. If the situation worsens, the Palestinians will end up living in a failed state, with a spillover effect in neighbouring countries. If the Palestinians successfully surmount their current difficulties, however, they could provide the compass for many countries with similar tensions.
Marwan Bishara, a Palestinian based in Paris, teaches international affairs. He is the author of Palestine/Israel: Peace or Apartheid
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