Organised chaos?

As can be expected, the recently released National Intelligence Estimate, or NIE, report by the combined 16 US Intelligence agencies assessing that Iran, despite all the recent rhetoric, is not on its way to building a nuclear bomb took everyone by surprise. Except for President Bush, who it seems had prior knowledge. Or so now they would have us believe.

This latest political bomb that shook Washington comes after four years during which time the Bush administration was shouting to the world the perils of a nuclear-armed Iran. As recently as last summer, there were strong indications that the United States was gearing up for a military strike on the Islamic republic’s nuclear building sites. The administration claimed to have all the “proof” needed to justify its policy.

Suddenly on Monday, the unexpected release of the latest and much-anticipated NIE, revealed that Iran has turned its back on its nuclear ambitions as far back as 2003.

But it gets stranger.

Despite the findings by his Intelligence agencies, claiming no nuclear threat, President Bush insists that the Islamic republic still represents a threat given that they have the knowledge allowing them to build a nuclear device.

However, Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did not waste time declaring “victory”. Addressing thousands of supporters at a rally in Ilham province, Ahmadinejad said the US National Intelligence Estimate report was an attempt to "extract America from its impasse, but it is also a declaration of the Iranian people's victory against the great powers".

“You are all victorious in all areas and especially in nuclear," Ahmadinejad said added in his speech, broadcast live on state television: "With the help of God, our people have resisted, are resisting and will resist until the end."

So if it is a great victory, especially in terms of nuclear capabilities, is that not an acceptance by the Iranian president that his country is on its way to becoming a nuclear power?

President Bush believes it is and is insistant that the United Nations Security Council impose even stricter sanctions on Teheran.

Indeed, it would seem there is total confusion at the heart of this administration with, on one hand, the executive calling for sanctions and warning of the possibility of a "nuclear holocaust" if Iran was allowed by the international community to pursue its nuclear ambitions.

On the other hand, the entire Intelligence community now tells us that there is no threat. However, this does not mean that Iran is out of the nuclear woods, just yet. If the United States is accepting the NIE’s report, Israel on the other hand, who feels much more threatened by a nuclear-armed Iran, remains sceptical. Israeli newspapers estimated that by 2009 Iran would have the possibility of building its first nuclear bomb. That is truly the case then it means that some time during the coming year, we can expect to see an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear sites.

For Israel, if it does take it upon itself the task of neutralising Iran’s nuclear factories, the job will not be as simple as it was back in 1981 when it attacked and destroyed Iraq’s nuclear facilities at Osirak. Those responsible for the security of Iran’s nuclear installations have drawn a lesson from Iraq’s mistakes.

Saddam Hussein had concentrated everything under one roof at Osirak. On June 7, 1981, a squadron of Israeli F–16 fighters, escorted by F-15s bombed the Iraqi facility. Not wishing to offer its enemies the same opportunity, the Islamic republic scattered its nuclear building sites across the country, rendering a military strike by the United States or Israel all that more difficult.

There was a conversion plant at Isfahan, an enrichment facility at Natanz, a plutonium processing centre at Arak; the list went on. Iranian opposition groups, primarily the Mek, or Mujahedeen-e-Khalq, provided details of Iran’s nuclear programmes down to the names and home addresses of government officials allegedly involved in building Iran’s nuclear arsenal.

And again the Mujahedeen-e-Khalq saw this as a golden opportunity to utilise the US military power to confront the ruling Ayatollahs. Why not? We have seen it happen in Iraq with exiled Iraqis, notably Ahmad Chalabi, convincing the Bush administration that the overthrow of Saddam would have been a cakewalk. He never bothered to mention that it was going to be devil’s cake. Just as the Ayatollahs learned from Saddam's mistakes, it could be that the exiled Iranian opposition thought they could emulate the Iraqis in exile. But will the US fall for the same trick twice?

Someone out there is not telling the truth; either the NIE report has been purposely doctored, or the MeK has been feeding the administration false information. Stay tuned, certainly more will follow.

Claude Salhani is editor of the Middle East Times and a political analyst in Washington, DC. He can be contacted at claude@metimes.com