• Home
• /
• Opinion

Iran is no North Korea, Trump has thrown it a lifeline

Maximum pressure. Is it working against Iran? Perhaps. US President Donald Trump wants talks, not war, but he wants it on his terms. That's the way he likes it. He is a control freak who heads a democracy and that makes him a potent and worthy enemy when he deals with despotic regimes.
He speaks their language, but knows when to pull back like he did on Thursday when he called off strikes on Iran after US fighter jets were airborne.
To force the Iranians to accept his terms he will keep them and the world guessing even it if means disruption and instability in the Middle East.
Some may call this approach diplomatic madness, but I think (and hope) there is a method in the madness.
The method was evident in the Korean Peninsula when a process of engagement with the North Korean regime was initiated with Trump meeting Kim Jong-un in Singapore and Hanoi.
A nuclear-powered dictator, until then a pariah on the world stage, who had threatened the South with annihilation, was granted a photo-op with the leader of a superpower.
The two sides, sworn foes since the 1950s Korean War, started talking in 2017 after months of rhetoric and threats online. Trump drew Kim out of his shell, got him smiling, and made him look mortal.
But Iran is different, and Trump understands that. While North Korea is a nuclear rogue, Iran is a rogue state by virtue of it being lord and master of militias and terror organisations like the Hezbollah and the Houthis.
It is unlikely that the clerical regime that was baptised in anti-America rhetoric since the late 70s will rush into talks with Washington and strike a deal as Trump would have it.
The trouble in dealing with Iran is that there is no interlocutor who is seriously interested in making things normal. Switzerland is an option but both Tehran and the US have shown little interest. There is a lack of emotion, no shared history, nothing. Oil and business are the only connect.
With Korea, there was a partner for Trump in South Korean President Moon Jae-in who had emotional links to the North. Blood is thicker than oil, and that's why dealing with the North Korean crisis was easier.
It's debatable if the effort in the Korean Peninsula was worth it but Trump now considers Chairman Kim a 'dear friend'. The two sides say sweet nothings to each other and exchange letters. Kim feels special and Trump's ego gets a boost, his bullying instincts pushed to the side for a change. The meanness is gone in the relationship and there is at least a window of opportunity for permanent peace with some help from friends like South Korea and China.
Washington's approach to North Korea was to find a cure to its nuclear thick-headedness.
With Iran, it is all about prevention. There is already a proxy epidemic spawned by Tehran and the first task is to contain it. The Houthis have been curbed in Yemen by the Arab coalition headed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Hezbollah has been restricted to Lebanon following sanctions on Tehran.
The failed nuclear deal with Iran in 2015 was rushed through with Europe eager for some easy pickings from Iran's fledgling oil industry. Libya's tale is still fresh in everyone's minds when Nato egged on by France and Italy made a hash of regime change with the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.
This is the best chance for Iran to come in from the cold and leave the past behind. A sham nuclear deal like the now-defunct pact does it no justice. Iran must realise it is a bad regional actor and not a rogue nuclear state like North Korea. Worse, other powers might be tempted to traverse the dangerous nuclear road if deals are struck in advance.
What Tehran needs is an economic deal that benefits its citizens. Trump has thrown the regime a bait, or let me put it diplomatically, a lifeline. They should grab it and join the likes of Kim for a photo-op with the US president who has made this presidency a daily media circus.
-allan@khaleejtimes.com