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Iran, Country of the Year

My imaginary award is modeled after the famous Time Magazine “Man of the Year” which has since morphed into the perhaps more politically correct “Person of the Year.” Keep in mind that the award for country of the year, just like the man/person of the year, does not necessarily mean that the winner needs to be a “good” man/person/country. All that needs to happen is for the object of the exercise to feature prominently in the news during the past 12 months.

Possibly the all-time worst decision made by Time Magazine’s editors was their Jan. 2, 1939 choice for their man of the year: Adolf Hitler. As Time’s founder Henry Luce expressed, “for better or worse.” And Hitler had certainly influenced the events of the previous year.

Likewise, one needs not agree with Tehran’s policy to admit that Iran— for better or for worse—has influenced the flow of events over the passing 12 months in the Middle East and beyond.

The Islamic Republic has been active in Iraq, Lebanon and Gaza, where they have backed their proxy militias providing them with guns, munitions, logistics and military trainers. And Islamic Republic has been accused of supporting groups in Bahrain, Egypt and Kuwait.

Through its close cooperation with Syria and its presence in one form or another in Lebanon and Gaza, the Iranians have within a few years accomplished something the Soviets had been trying for since their revolution and until their invasion of Afghanistan but never succeeded: gain access to deepwater ports on the Mediterranean.

So why does Iran deserve the award? Look at it this way. Since its inception, the Islamic Republic has followed a clear political line without deviating from it as much as an iota. An analysis of the current situation leads to believe there is no reason for change in the foreseeable future. Since the very beginning Iran has been following the philosophy of “Wilayat el-Fakih,” as set up by Ayotallah Khomeini.

The Wilayet el-Fakih calls for the “recognition of the absolute and supranational political and religious authority of the Supreme Guide, the wali el-fakih. This constitutes one of the main characteristics (if not the central characteristic) of both the Iranian revolution, as well as that of its proxy militia, Hezbollah. A deep understanding of the Wilayat el-Fakih system is indispensable in understanding the behaviour of the Iranians. Iran wants to become the major regional power and will pursue its nuclear programme. It will continue to attempt to export its revolution to other countries in the region. It will continue to buy time, as it negotiates with the West until it is either aftermath of the recent presidential elections, or reaches the point of open conflict with one of its neighbours.

So long as the current regime remains in power expect no change in Tehran’s policies. Rather, expect the West to change and continue to bend backwards to accommodate the Iranians. So long as the principle of Wilayet el Fakih remains in force you there can be no change in relations with the West.

Meanwhile, think how much we have gone back and forth, shifting policy: now we talk to you, now we don’t. Now impose sanctions, now we don’t. From Jimmy Carter to Ronald Reagan to George Bush to Bill Clinton, to George W. Bush and now to Barack Obama. Look at how different US foreign policy changed under those different administrations.

Now compare it to what the Iranian policy s have been attempting to accomplish: Export their revolution, something they have not given up on and despite drawbacks of the early years, they have now succeeded in gaining a foothold in Lebanon, through Hezbollah, in Palestine through Hamas and in Syria through badly executed US foreign policy that pushed Syria into the arms of the ayatollahs. If the majority of the Arab leaders were slow in recognising the dangers of rising Iranian influence they are now beginning to realise the potential danger a strong and particularly a nuclear powered Iran represents. First, the Moroccans recalled their ambassador in Tehran last February after an Iranian cleric made statements claiming Iranian sovereignty over Bahrain. Later in the year Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas told President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran to leave the Palestinian issue to the Palestinians and to stop interfering in Palestinian affairs. And more recently Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak warned against Iran’s meddling in Arab affairs, stating that Egypt “will not hesitate to take a stance that opposes the attempts to destabilise the country.”

Indeed, is scanning the official press in Cairo one comes away with the feeling that Egyptian authorities have started to feel somewhat edgy about Tehran’s rising influence in the Arab World. Iran’s footprint today is visible in a number of Arab countries, most noticeably in Lebanon through Hezbollah, the primary Lebanese Shia movement whose armed wing is believed to be stronger and better equipped than the Lebanese army.

Iran’s influence is present in Gaza where they support Hamas through finances and weapons. And of course, Iranian influence is widely present in Iraq, where about 60 per cent of the population is Shia.

Iran has also been accused by a number of sources to be at least partially responsible for the recent armed skirmishes between Saudi Arabian forces on the one hand and Houthi rebels in Yemen; and Yemeni forces on the other, fighting the same rebel forces along the Yemeni-Saudi frontier. Of late, the Egyptian press lashed out at the mullahs, accusing them of fomenting trouble around the Middle East. Besides the obvious danger of a nuclear-armed Iran is the added danger of a nuclear arms race in the region. If Iran goes through with its nuclear programme it is very likely that a number of Arab countries - notably Egypt and Saudi Arabia would follow suit. Not a pleasant thought as we enter a new year.

Claude Salhani is editor of the Middle East Times and author of the newly released book “While the Arab World Slept: the impact of the Bush years on the Middle East.” For comment, write to opinion@
khaleejtimes.com