Homeward bound

Since we have known one another for years, the mood was informal and congenial, but politically the electricity still sizzled as Pakistan’s twice former prime minister seemed poised to become that nation’s next one.

Bhutto was cautiously optimistic. The situation in Pakistan is ugly, she said. Days earlier, many of her Pakistan People’s Party supporters had been beaten with bricks by the police and seriously injured. Pakistan is facing growing violence by Islamic militants and tribal insurgents.

Last month, Pakistan’s first woman prime minister gave me a worldwide exclusive, revealing that she would return to Pakistan on October 18. At the time, she still faced serious criminal charges in Pakistan over corruption cases that have dragged on for years. Bhutto denies any guilt and insists the cases were political vendettas. None have ever been proved.

Last week, Bhutto reaffirmed she would leave London on the 17^th and land the next morning in Karachi, the bastion of her political support.

Bhutto vowed she would go ahead even if forces of the military regime headed by President Pervez Musharraf tried to arrest her. But the next day, after weeks of what she termed “stalling” by Musharraf’s US-backed military regime, the embattled military regime announced that corruption charges against Bhutto had been lifted, opening the way for her legal return. Or so it appeared in the murky twilight of Pakistani politics.

The fate of Pakistan’s other main political leader, Nawaz Sharif, who was kicked out when he tried to return recently, remains uncertain.

Musharraf’s plummeting domestic support and intensified pressure from Washington are pushing the reluctant general into a deal with old foe Bhutto, whose dislike for the general is exceeded only by her ardent desire to regain political power.

“No, not a deal,” insists Bhutto, “a constitutional arrangement.” Whatever you call it, barring potential last-minute snags, it seems the long-anticipated, American-brokered power sharing agreement between Musharraf and Bhutto is close.

But late last week, Pakistan’s born-again Supreme Court further muddied the political waters by declaring Saturday’s presidential election could proceed, but it would delay ruling if Musharraf could serve as both president and military leader.

“The Army would like to distance itself from the perception it is running the country,” says Bhutto. “The longer military dictatorship continues, the more we will face violence from extremist groups.”

Would the army fight a national uprising against Musharraf, I asked?

“No, the army is highly disciplined. The mainly Punjabi army won’t fire on its own people,” she predicted, nor would it split.

This week, President Musharraf named loyal ally, military intelligence chief Gen Ashfaq Kiyani, as new armed forces commander, and appointed other loyalists to senior positions. My sources say all were vetted and approved in advance by Washington.

Musharraf may resign as armed forces commander, but he and Washington will still pull the military’s strings. Since the military is the only national institution that really works and holds respect, nameplates will change but the power will remain in the same hands as now.

Benazir Bhutto, outwardly confident and determined, believes she can take charge of turbulent Pakistan in time to ward off an internal explosion or even civil war that would shake South Asia and deprive the US of a key ally.

But during her previous two terms, she was never fully able to grasp the reins of power and constantly thwarted by her generals. This time around, her position is likely to be even weaker and her powers ill-defined and contested. Musharraf and the Bush administration hope she will provide democratic window-dressing while the military runs the show and fights Islamists and tribesmen.

But Bhutto is determined to get the army out of politics. So who will really be in charge? Will Pakistanis accept a new government hand-crafted by Washington?

“The military is the problem, not solution,” she says. “If there is a fair vote early next year, our party(PPP) and its allies will win.”

High drama awaits Pakistan on the 18^th when Benzair crosses the Rubicon. Don’t underestimate this very tough lady.

As I was leaving London, Benazir Bhutto sent me a message: “Our next meeting, if not at the foothills of the Khyber Pass, then at the shores of the Arabian Sea.”

Eric S. Margolis is a veteran American journalist and contributing foreign editor of The Toronto Sun