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Facing up to a human disaster

With fresh rains threatening more havoc the full magnitude of the disaster is still unfolding. The government’s initial response has been slow and uncoordinated.

The military on the other hand has taken charge of much of relief work with 60,000 troops engaged in rescue, evacuation and emergency efforts. The Army Chief General Ashfaq Kayani has been visiting almost every flood area. The Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif too has been active in supervising flood relief.

This has made the federal government look ineffectual. That has further reinforced the impression created by President Asif Ali Zardari’s absence from the country when the floods struck of an administration that is distant and disconnected from the people.

If the government is to reverse this perception it will have to strive to regain lost ground by more competent management of what is still an evolving calamity.

Once the waters recede the more formidable challenge will come in the rehabilitation and reconstruction phase. Tens of thousands of homes will need to be rebuilt. So will the lives of millions of people displaced by the crisis who have lost their livelihoods and seen their crops and livestock destroyed. The colossal damage to the infrastructure of roads, bridges, dams, barrages, irrigation and power networks will require enormous resources and years of reconstruction.

This task will need an extraordinary level of commitment and ability but above all leadership to steer the nation to safer shores. And between now and then there are more crises to avert. Disease and hunger threaten a public health catastrophe and a second wave of deaths.

Meanwhile the full extent of a spreading disaster will only be determined once a comprehensive damage assessment is undertaken.

The humanitarian and social costs of the crisis—evident in the millions of people displaced, homes destroyed and livelihoods lost—will rise if timely and adequate assistance is not provided. Partially mitigating the tragedy is that extraordinary source of national resilience which serves in crises as a social safety net— help from the wider community, private charities and philanthropic members of society. But given the unprecedented scale of the crisis this cannot substitute or be an excuse for official under reaction.

Unless the needs of the flood-affected are met the social consequences can be very serious because this can fuel public anger, drive social unrest and compound deeper, longer-standing grievances.

The economic impact will be substantial and severe. Although the full ramifications are too early to assess the disaster will retard the country’s anemic economic recovery with the annual GDP growth target of 4.5 per cent this year expected to halve if not plunge more. The effect on already double-digit inflation and interest rates will be considerable.

Agricultural sector losses are extensive. The World Bank’s calculation of a billion dollars worth of crops being destroyed is probably an under estimate. Pakistani experts put this and livestock losses at $ 3 billion.

Whether the calamity will be a political game changer only time will tell. For now a blow has been struck to the already low public standing of the government. This has been compounded by the lack of leadership and reassuring stewardship during the crisis.

Another potential political fallout—that must be averted— arises from the emerging sense of alienation reported among people in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. This could heighten if the needs of the flood victims are not urgently met. Already provincial leaders have been vocal in complaining about Islamabad’s tardy and allegedly uneven handed relief disbursement.

If the distribution of relief assistance is politicised and turns out to be patronage-driven rather than needs-based the repercussions can be grave for the unity of the country.

Among the many critical areas the government needs to focus on are, first and foremost to ensure rapid relief and rehabilitation that is shorn of partisanship and provincial discrimination. Two, it needs to mobilise a national effort by insuring close and robust inter agency and inter provincial coordination and channeling the energies of citizens, the business community and non profit organisations behind an effective plan, once it has evolved one. Despite some exemplary privately-generated efforts there is a lack of the spontaneous and vigorous citizen response of the kind seen after the 2005 earthquake.

And three, the government needs to galvanise the international community from which the response thus far has been weak and ungenerous. There may be several reasons for this — donor fatigue, economic recession, the government’s low international credibility, the lack of urgency signaled by its initial reaction, and unsympathetic portrayals of the country by both foreign governments and the media. The UN appeal for $460 million in donations has so far had a disappointing response whereas $ 247 million was committed in just the first 10 days following the 2005 earthquake.

A key plank of the overseas effort should be to encourage millions of Pakistanis living abroad to give generously—for which our diaspora has a proven and inspiring record. The government should also remember that a more generous international response is more likely to materialise if the world sees an effective national effort being mounted and mobilised.

Maleeha Lodhi served as Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States and the United Kingdom. For comments, write to opinion@khaleejtimes.com