Divided Lebanon

But expressions of concern in Tel Aviv, as Prime Minister Olmert increased security at Israeli interests across the world, might just be a cover for well calculated glee, and Hezbollah could be sleep walking into a carefully set trap.

Revenge has characterised exchanges between Israel and militias battling it for decades now. Though no party has yet claimed responsibility for the Mughniyeh killing in Damascus, it bears the Israeli establishment's fingerprints through and through, especially considering the timing. The out-of-nowhere attack comes close on the heels of the Winograd report that added to Israel's embarrassment over last summer's failure with regard to the war in Lebanon. The myth of Israel's military might rubbished and its polity and armed forces discredited, chances of the Olmert dispensation wanting another shot at Hezbollah cannot be ruled out. If that is so, Tel Aviv has sprung a novelty, inciting Hezbollah to start the agitation and bear the brunt of it.

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The truth of the hypothesis notwithstanding, it bears stressing that Hezbollah would commit a serious strategic blunder by translating its chief's threats into action anytime soon. Even if a confrontation with Israel is limited, the militia is not in a position to claim moral high ground, and hence would not be able to assert itself like last time. The Lebanese public has had more than its share of woes and tragedies, yet circumstances prevent a return of calm to the troubled land. It seemed the lessons of the long and painful civil war would keep people from bickering among themselves again, but that has clearly not been the case.

Also, any attack on Israel would prove disastrous not just for Lebanon, but for the entire Middle East region, volatile as it already is. Events dictate scaling down of the violence, not the other way round. Besides, whatever sort of battle takes place between Israel and its neighbours, the casualties are always higher on the latter's side, as was so apparent last summer also.

Hezbollah is grieved by the murder of one of its frontrunners. Israel is still reeling from the unexpected belting last year. To translate that anger into increased misery for innocent people already living less than ideal lives should be avoided at all costs.