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An assertive Russia

It is sure to get tongues wagging across the Atlantic about how misperceived the Russian threat perceptions are amid a lot of outraged statements about a possible arms race but Putin’s thoughts put down in a recently published article deserve more than a cursory glance.

Though popular contention may attribute Putin’s stance to boost his popularity before presidential elections in March, there are reasons to believe that the president-in-waiting may only have articulated the official mindset. So the question is, do Russians actually believe that other states (that have not been named) are waiting to grab and exploit Russian resources, principally its mineral wealth? Or this another of Putin’s sideshow of Russian assertiveness at a time when he needs to bolster the country’s image especially when American global supremacy is on a downslide, politically and economically. Washington may have tried harder than ever to firm its loosening grip on foreign policy issues and give an image to the contrary but the dent delivered to its economy after two every expensive wars and economic mismanagement at home may have made it hard to attain its post Cold war position again. Whether the US is one such unnamed state eyeing Russian mineral wealth is difficult to tell but its planned missile defence shield in Eastern Europe has been a bone of contention for Moscow. So much so that it has derailed the famous “reset in ties” that haloed the famous handshake between American President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on signing the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, StartII. All that remains of hopes attached to a new phase of relations between the erstwhile foes is tepid diplomacy and rhetoric. Unfortunately, this is punctuated by arm twisting on the missile shield and Russian position on Iran and Afghanistan amid anger over American closeness with former Soviet Republics like Georgia.

Russia’s decision to boost its military might in developing advanced non-nuclear long-range missiles — that incidentally will have capability of penetrating the missile shield — stem from real concern about the state’s defences in the long run. That is why Moscow is planning on spending a staggering $770 billion on hundreds if intercontinental ballistic missiles, combat aircraft, submarines and armoured vehicles etc.

Though Russia may economically be in a position to do so it also has to contend with joblessness and other socio-economic domestic issues. Political freedom is also a major concern as witnessed in the protests recently.

Both Washington and Moscow must understand that provocative actions especially strategic ones are hardly going to benefit either and the rules of realpolitik may have to be changed.