Allies are alone as US splits from liberal order
Impulsive policies in Ukraine and Syria have demoralised friends and emboldened adversaries.
One moment in October captures a foreign policy in chaos: In Syria, two American F-15E warplanes bombed a military base, headquarters of the US campaign against Daesh, to keep longtime Nato ally Turkey from taking control.
The president's decision to withdraw about 1,000 US troops from northern Syria to Iraq without notice or preparation and apparent attempts to coerce Ukraine, a young democracy under siege by Russia, for personal gain have shaken the confidence of US allies and partners during an uncertain era of geopolitical transition. US actions in Ukraine and Syria have demoralised America's friends and emboldened adversaries. The United States and the world are less safe as a result.
The latest moves come on the heels of the White House denigrating democracies, confiding in dictators over diplomats, extorting allies and undermining international institutions. Mistreatment of Ukraine's democratic government and Kurdish partners in Syria have delivered the coup de grâce for America's international credibility.
Expect friends to reduce reliance on the United States further as they hedge their strategic bets. Many partners have limited capacity and choices and may find the available alternatives, such as China and Russia, to be more unpalatable. But let's be clear, many allies now trust the United States less than at any time since World War II. The damage to the country's image and reputation will be hard to repair.
Even before the recent events came to light, the administration's foreign policy has been refracted through the prism of domestic politics to an unprecedented degree. The White House's alleged efforts to leverage almost $400 million in military aid to Ukraine for dirt on a political rival reinforces this view.
Less than two decades removed from post-Soviet independence, Ukraine struggles to manage internal divisions and build democracy. In 2014, Russia seized Crimea, an autonomous republic of Ukraine, and its historic meddling continues unabated. Conditioning security assistance under these circumstances to influence a presidential election would constitute an epic shakedown.
Congress's decision to launch an impeachment inquiry into the president's actions is draining time and attention of the White House, Congress, the State Department and other parts of the government. As the process drags into 2020, Washington will have little time to focus on alliance management.
The abrupt decision to abandon Kurdish allies led to the predictable collapse of a delicate truce in Northern Syria. Roughly 11,000 Kurds died in combat to destroy Daesh's "caliphate." Partners will think twice about fighting terrorists if it means being left exposed as Uncle Sam slips out the backdoor. Some stakeholders could reach the same conclusion as Iraq's former national security adviser Mowaffak al-Rubaie: "For the Americans, their friends are disposable."
The "leader of the free world" cannot impulsively betray an ally in such a volatile region without global repercussions. Those searching for a silver lining may find it in the bipartisan condemnation of the White House's conduct in Syria and congressional leadership's efforts to reassure allies from Jordan to Afghanistan. Trump still operates under constraints. Intense criticism from the president's own party over self-dealing led him to revisit using his own hotel to host the 2020 G-7 summit. In the near-term, France, Germany and Japan will also participate in damage control.
Some likeminded friends might see American isolationism as a reason to join in defending international principles, as suggested for Asia earlier in Trump's tenure. Big trade deals are getting inked, just not with the United States. Democracies such as Australia and India, for example, may enhance cooperation to counter a more powerful China. In the South China Sea, as Beijing asserts itself, European and Asia-Pacific democracies have conducted joint patrols in defense of the global norm of freedom of navigation.
Yet, even if the differences that complicate collective action were finessed, virtually no configuration of democracies would be a sufficient substitute for engaged American leadership. The country's military and economic strength is still unmatched, and it plays a unique convening role.
As doubts grow about US commitment to treaty allies, some countries will invest more in their militaries or make temporary friendships with strange bedfellows. In the president's Hobbesian world where power trumps principle, a nationalist government in Turkey or a future conservative one in South Korea may conclude they can no longer depend on the US security umbrella and must take steps toward developing a nuclear bomb Others will place a renewed premium on keeping options flexible, selectively partnering when national interests happen to align in a more multipolar world. India's new government appears headed in this direction, sending Washington signals it will cooperate with China, Europe, Japan, Russia and others when it suits New Delhi to do so.
The hedging will also take the form of a more pragmatic engagement of China and Russia. Even a nationalist Japanese government firmly anchored in the US alliance system has taken noticeable steps to improve ties with Beijing.
There is a growing bipartisan recognition that life after Trump may not mean a return to business as usual. That could be healthy if the parties can forge a consensus around engaged US leadership in the world focused on diplomacy, alliances and the power of the country's example as key pillars. Relying on more than just military strength - and using it wisely - would save US lives and money to devote to national rejuvenation.
America's partners will be watching the impeachment process and presidential elections for clues to see if the principal architect of today's international system is intent on further unraveling. But they aren't waiting to see if Trump's brand of diplomacy is a passing phase. Restoring US allies' lost trust will be central to securing a safer, more prosperous world. That process will take a number of years, if not decades or more, and will test anew America's remarkable capacity for self-renewal.
Atman Trivedi is an adjunct fellow at the Pacific Forum. He worked at the US State and Commerce Departments and on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Santiago Herdoiza is a research associate