A patchy report card

She created an unusual political arrangement, whereby Manmohan Singh, ever the soft-spoken and low-key politician, would become Prime Minister; the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance apparatus would coordinate policies with the government. And third, she secured the Left parties’ support to the UPA from the outside.

The UPA’s opponents made dismal predictions about its future prospects. Singh, with no political base of his own, would be only a PPM (Puppet Prime Minister); the real power would rest in 10, Janpath. The Congress, they prophesied, would wreck the UPA because of its arrogance and visceral hostility to coalition politics. People like Lalu Prasad would embarrass the UPA no end. The Left could withdraw support if the UPA pursues too many free market policies. Even Vajpayee relied on the astrological forecast that the UPA would collapse by September!

In the event, the UPA has not only survived, but flourished. Singh has emerged as a quietly assertive PM. Whether or not one agrees with his political instincts, ideas and assessments, one must admit he is his own man. The Congress has had to adapt itself to the compulsions of coalition politics.

The UPA’s relations with the government have survived the many strains inevitable in that arrangement. Friction between UPA constituents has not precipitated the kind of crises that erupted in the first weeks of the Janata or other coalition experiments.

The Left is not happy with many UPA policies, especially its neo-liberal orientation. But it knows it can’t call the shots. As CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat says: "If the Left takes a clear-cut position, the PM is willing to listen. But once he makes up his mind, he goes ahead." Yet, the Left isn’t about to destabilise the UPA. It cannot risk the Hindu right’s return.

The UPA has revived faith in consensual, secular politics, premised upon India’s multi-ethnic, multi-religious character. It has bolstered the morale of India’s religious and ethnic minorities, and generated hope among many socially underprivileged layers. It has put the BJP on the defensive by exposing the Centaur Hotel and UTI scandals. Revitalisation of secular politics is a worthy achievement, but it cannot be sustained without focused and energetic efforts to pro-actively promote secularism.

A major UPA achievement is the campaign to detoxify educational institutions and textbooks of the Hindutva influence implanted by the BJP over six years. This is a welcome reaffirmation of secularism after the deep wounds inflicted by the Gujarat violence. In external affairs, there has been a welcome improvement in relations with China, and especially Pakistan, where a breakthrough is possible on issues (for example, Siachen) which have long defied solution. However, the balance sheet’s negative side is probably more important in determining the UPA’s legitimacy and longevity. Singh himself rates the government’s performance at 6 on a 1-to-10 scale. His office has compiled a report on the implementation of the National Common Minimum Programme.

Of the 40-odd major promises, progress on more than 30 is ‘unsatisfactory’. It describes progress on only four relatively minor promises as satisfactory. That’s just one-tenth of the total.

The UPA has failed to implement some of its greatest promises, which distinguish it from the NDA, and reflect the electorate’s urge for redistributive justice within an increasingly dualistic economy.

The crucial promises pertain to the Employment Guarantee Act (which was to be passed within the first 100 days); doubling rural credit and relieving agrarian distress; SC/ST reservations in the private sector; reservations of one-third of Lok Sabha seats for women; and raising public spending on education to 6 per cent of GDP. The UPA robbed the EGA of the concept of a guarantee: the right can be switched on or off at the government’s will. It reduced its coverage to under a fourth of India, without the minimum wage. It referred the Bill to a Parliamentary committee headed by a BJP MP who refuses to convene it.

One year on, the promise to tackle the people’s biggest economic problem, unemployment, remains unfulfilled. This contrasts with the UPA’s speed in raising foreign investment caps in telecom and insurance, allowing private airlines to fly abroad, etc. This speaks of the differential priorities it attaches to different objectives. Singh confirmed this on May 16, when he again stressed on disinvestment in public enterprises. This sits ill with the NCMP promise not to privatise profit-making public enterprises.

The government has been collecting a 2 per cent cess on central taxes to finance universal access to elementary education. The PMO’s report card blames the Ministry of Human Resource Development for not raising the education budget to the 6-per cent target. But it is the Cabinet’s responsibility to direct Finance Minister Chidambaram to create an elementary education fund with the cess as with highways. It has not delivered on this. The Rs. 13,000 crores cess collected is more than the Rs. 12,537 crores budget allocation to elementary education — a shame!

The UPA’s record on international relations is questionable too. The ‘strategic partnership’ with Washington continues with all its inequality. At one point, the UPA considered sending troops to Iraq. India continues its close military relationship with Israel without pressing for an end to Palestine’s occupation.

The UPA promised to update and campaign for the 1988 Rajiv Gandhi plan for global nuclear disarmament. It hasn’t. India is furiously stockpiling weapons-grade plutonium and building nuclear war-fighting capabilities. Another grave disappointment is high defence spending. The UPA has raised it by 26 per cent since June when there is an urgent need to cut it. That India should be the world’s largest arms importer while being among the lowest one-fourth of the globe’s nations in human development is a shame. The UPA must change course. A score of 6/10 may not be good enough for it to be re-elected!

Praful Bidwai is an eminent Indian journalist and commentator