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A dangerous political showdown in the making

He appears to have persuaded himself into believing that his domestic political and socio-economic policies are on the right course and that in due course of time these policies would not only help eradicate poverty from the country but also usher in true democracy. He, however, seems to have a very dim opinion of the opposition’s ability to contribute positively to his efforts in this direction.

In fact, if one goes by what he said recently while addressing a group of country’s lawyers, it appears as if he regards those opposed to his style of governance and his system of government as the biggest obstacle in the way to his country’s progress and prosperity.

On the other hand, according to what the country’s official and non-official opposition is saying and doing these days, it seems as if Pakistan’s very existence is threatened by the internal and external policies that Musharraf is pursuing. The official opposition (the MMA) and the unofficial one (the ARD) want Musharrraf to give up immediately in the supreme national interest, the uniform and his all intrusive extra-constitutional role in the executive branch of the government.

Clearly, the two seem to be living in two different worlds. In fact they appear to be speaking about two different countries when they — Musharraf and the opposition — talk about the problems Pakistan is faced with today. And, as of today, there seems to be no meeting point between the two.

And like all previous rulers, Musharraf too seems to have come to the conclusion that he alone has the monopoly over wisdom and patriotism in his country and that the opposition is working against the very interests of Pakistan and is devoid of any wisdom or patriotism. On the other hand the opposition, like all previous oppositions, seems to want nothing less than his removal which, according to them, is the only way to save the country from a looming disaster.

So, the stage seems to have been set for a head-long collision between the two in not too distant a future. The holy month of Ramadan seems to be holding up the opposition for the time being. Some have even started describing the current calm as the proverbial lull before the storm. And there is a sense of foreboding among the people at large. The masses have seen and suffered the resultant upheavals of such head long collisions between the government and the opposition in the past as well.

The agitation against President Field Marshal Ayub Khan and his successor, President General Yahya Khan had ended in the bloody dismemberment of the country. The one against ZA Bhuttto ended in a long drawn and disastrous military rule of President General Zia-ul Haq from which Pakistan inherited the present day menace of terrorism and drugs. And the acrimonious relationship between the successive governments and the opposition during the 1990s which at times had turned into self-destructive exercises had paved the way for a fourth round of seemingly equally disastrous military rule in the country.

The King’s party which Musharraf had brought into being through a series of brazen compromises and ‘legal’ illegalities and its partners, the Patriots-turned-PPP and the MQM seem to be interested more in their own respective narrow material and political interests rather than providing him the needed political support at the grass roots level.

The mafia-like grip of Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, the President of PML over the party seems to be slipping off because of his bad health. And now that he has left the country for medical treatment abroad, the knotty job of keeping in line those disgruntled members of the party who did not get a cabinet post or a parliamentary committee chairmanship has fallen on the politically weak shoulders of Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, the federal minister for information and broadcasting Shaikh Rashid and the general secretary of the party, Mushahid Hussain Syed. So far, they have failed to get these 100 or so angry PML members to help them maintain even the quorum in the two houses, let alone mobilising them into a political force capable of effectively taking on the opposition inside and outside parliament in a show down.

This is not to say that the opposition will win the battle hands down, if it came to that any time in the near future. The opposition, the MMA has a vested interest in the system that Musharraf has put in place. They have complete control over one full province (the NWFP), are partners in the coalition government of another (Balochistan) and also have the coveted post of leader of the official opposition in their hands. They would never like to disturb this arrangement. And above all, ideologically they are on the other side of the political fence vis-à-vis the ARD, comprising mainly Benazir Bhutto’s PPP and Nawaz Sharif’s PML(N).

Actually, it was this very affinity of the MMA with the uniform and the King’s party and its interest in keeping the arrangement intact that had persuaded the religious alliance to sit with the government party late last year and sort out the seemingly never ending tangle of the LFO and get the 17th amendment passed in parliament. So, one cannot see the MMA going all the way in any confrontation with Musharraf. They would certainly like to stop short of upsetting the President’s apple cart on which they themselves have a small little political niche. And that is what perhaps Musharraf is hoping would happen when the time comes for a real show-down with the opposition.

The writer is a senior Pakistani journalist