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A Climate of Change

The Copenhagen accord last week didn’t as much collapse or implode but simply deflated like a hot air balloon, the gas escaping in different directions.

Prince Hamlet of Denmark had struggled with the dilemma long, long time ago: To be or not to be/that is 
the question!

But it would have been too much if King Obama had also quoted the Bard in the Danish capital when on the final day of the climate change summit he gate-crashed into a meeting of the BASIC — Brazil, South Africa, India and China — countries, all of them in various stages of Third World-ism and deliberating, how and if, they could also cut a deal with Big Brother.

In the end, Obama refrained from mixing pragmatism with Shakespeare, and from all accounts, rolled up his sleeves, and asked the leaders of the assembled nations what he and they could give and take.

The resulting Copenhagen accord is testimony of the driving desire of all four emerging economies — although, in truth, China has already largely emerged from the chrysalis, having become the world’s largest emitter of carbon emissions, leading even the US in this regard — to be right there on top, part of the global headlines, even as they sought to protect their red lines from home audiences.

Truth is, Brazil already has a hugely comfortable relationship with the US, and Presidents Lula and Obama are said to be buddies; South Africa is the richest country on the African continent and wants to stay there with a little help from friends in the West; India doesn’t want anything to come in the way of the last mile of the nuclear fuel reprocessing deal currently being thrashed out with the non-proliferation ayatollahs of the Obama administration; and China — well, China, in reality the world’s number two power, didn’t want to confront both the East and the West too much in Copenhagen.

It wouldn’t be too dramatic to say that the dividing lines of the Cold War were finally obliterated by the snow drifts in Copenhagen last week—and here’s the irony, the Russians weren’t even around. Or was it a quiet burial of Kipling’s century old mantra of never-shall-East-and-West-meet?

In Copenhagen, as the G-77 countries led by Sudan sought to keep the flock together, invoking old catechisms like historical responsibilities, peaking emissions, global funds for poor countries to adapt to climate change and technology transfers, the aforesaid G-4 quietly abandoned Third World solidarity in favour of a new emerging order in which each of these countries would play from the frontlines.

That is the real message of the Copenhagen summit: Along with China, which has already arrived, Brazil, South Africa and India have given notice that they are getting there.

Meanwhile, Old Europe has fallen by the wayside. Denmark’s new draft, infused with the hectoring of bored Scandinavian nations with too much time on their hands and the renewed desire to set the world right, was not only dismissed out of hand, it was 
contemptuously ignored.

To be sure, the new foursome are hardly a band of brothers, even if they have parts of the alphabet soup in common: India, Brazil and South Africa share the IBSA forum, while Brazil, India and China (along with Russia) have created a condominium called BRIC.But the truth is that there is too much suspicion and mistrust between India and China (Delhi warily eyes Beijing’s expanding sphere of influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean). Delhi also realised early that the US offer to create a $100 billion fund by 2020 was largely aimed at Brazil’s Amazon rainforest, begging the question of what would be left over for the rest of the developing world. Meanwhile, India-South Africa relations have hardly set 
anything on fire.

But each of the G-4 realised it was imperative to come together for their own ends and give the so called “new deal,” the Copenhagen accord, a new flavour. China needed to hide behind someone to criticise the developed world, so what better country to choose than India. And despite the Sino-Indian chill over border issues, Delhi knew it was important to smile sweetly on the climate change conundrum.

That’s why Copenhagen has been such a coming of age experience for India. For the first time in years, India seems to have learnt the importance of sending different messages to different audiences at the same time.

For example, for its home audience as well as the G-77 countries, India has protected itself from being accused of “selling out” by not accepting any legally binding emission cuts or peaking emissions (for all developing countries). But it has gone along with a US-brokered signature on the 
Copenhagen accord.

So even though Copenhagen may have ended up looking like a big, fat gas balloon, with hot air escaping from all sides, it also paved the way for a more thorough deal at Mexico in 2010.

In a few months, it might be easier for both sides to be able to sell tougher commitments to their home audiences; all negotiators know it’s easier to whittle down opposition the second time around. So fasten your seat belts, World, and get ready for a bumpy ride in the New Year. And while you’re at it, dig out your old copy of Shakespeare.

Jyoti Malhotra is a renowned Indian journalist and commentator. For comments, write to opinion@khaleejtimes.com