EU right to double-down on climate change

While von der Leyen’s concerns were well founded, the mission seemed a far-distant goal, an ideal, to stave off difficulties in the future.

When Ursula von der Leyen assumed office as president of the European Commission in late 2019, she vowed to make the battle against climate change her top priority. The executive arm of the European Union named the high-profile initiative the European Green Deal and put veteran Dutch politician Frans Timmerman in charge.

While von der Leyen’s concerns were well founded, the mission seemed a far-distant goal, an ideal, to stave off difficulties in the future.

She couldn’t have known that climate change would arrive on her very doorstep in such a violent way in less than two years. Last week, her native Germany was devastated by lethal flooding from rainfall that almost doubled previous records.

At least 156 people have died in Germany, making it the worst natural disaster to hit the country in almost 60 years. The Ahrweiler district south of Cologne reported at least 110 dead, among them 12 residents of a care home for the disabled.

Over a period of two days, an unusually static low-pressure zone unleashed record levels of rainfall, with the worst-affected areas battered by intense storms. Some places received as much as two months of rainfall in just 24 hours, Germany’s meteorological agency said.

Not only scientists, but the media and government officials at all levels blamed climate change for the unprecedented deluge. Combined with deadly heatwaves in North America, it seems clear that the results of climate change have arrived, and arrived with a vengeance.

Adding to 2019’s European Green Deal was a development even more ironic — or prescient. Just two days before the deadly rain and floods, the EU unveiled a proposed new “tariff” that would force imported commodities to be priced in line with their carbon load. The most aggressive policy of its kind worldwide, it could set the global standard due to the EU’s massive consumer market of almost half a billion relatively affluent people.

With the bloc aiming to achieve a 55 per cent reduction in emissions by 2030, the EU programme is called “Fit for 55”. It includes the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

The proposal has support from some member states, NGOs and think-tanks, which see it as a means to improve the environmental effectiveness of EU climate policy. Paolo Gentiloni, EU economy commissioner, said the CBAM was “overall positively received” during a recent G20 meeting in Venice. But resistance could come from developing countries that rely on pricing to gain ground in international trade.

CBAM would require importers of certain products to pay a charge reflecting the embedded carbon emissions of those products. After a pilot phase, it would come into force in 2026, initially applying to imported iron, steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizers and electricity.

To comply with the mechanism, importers would be required to buy a CBAM certificate for each ton of embedded carbon dioxide. The price of those certificates would be linked to EU carbon pricing, which recently moved above 50 euros a ton for the first time. The requirement would be gradually expanded until 2035, when the CBAM would cover 100 per cent of embedded emissions. Some sectors in the EU, such as cement and fertilizers, are welcoming the plan because it would also require less-regulated foreign producers to meet the same standards.

“The EU must put a carbon border measure in place to ensure an international level playing field,” said Jacob Hansen, director general of the industry group Fertilizers Europe. “Due to its high trade and energy intensity and the fact fertilizers are relatively simple products, the sector is well-suited for CBAM.”

One example of a non-EU nation that would feel the effects is Australia. Experts believe the new carbon plan could set the benchmark and trigger similar efforts from other importing partners that would impact the nation’s coal and iron ore industries.

“It is the first time we’ve ever seen any country, let alone the largest trading block, actually take a position to tax carbon exporters,” said Richie Merzian, director of climate and energy at The Australia Institute think-tank. “This is a bold move by the EU.”

Tony Wood from Australia’s Grattan Institute said “the writing’s on the wall -- this is going to happen in various ways”.

Meanwhile in Germany, the nation is shocked and in mourning. Now in the twilight of her leadership, the normally sanguine Chancellor Angela Merkel seemed a bit bewildered. She termed it “a catastrophe of the kind we have not experienced before”.

And with the UK also suffering through a heat wave, is it all clearly attributable to climate change? The average global temperature is now about 1.2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average, which makes heavy rainfall more likely, according to scientists. Warmer air holds more moisture, so more water will be released.

A 1 degree rise in average global temperature increases the atmosphere’s capacity to hold water by 7 per cent, climate scientists say, raising the chance of heavy rainfall events.

The EU is quite right to double-down and get enforceable, strict controls in place.

As one of the most advanced and well-developed regions on the planet, it seems right that the EU is determined to take the lead and implement plans to reduce global warming, even if it requires nations across the entire globe to follow whether they like it or not.

Jon Van Housen and Mariella Radaelli are journalists based in Milan