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Sugar bounces further from 1-year lows, cocoa flat

ICE raw sugar futures bounced on Friday with prices underpinned by oversold indicators and expectations that physical demand may pick up after prices fell to a one-year low earlier this week.

Arabica coffee edged up, holding just above last month’s 18-month low, while cocoa was little changed in light volumes as traders prepared for a major trade dinner in London in the evening.

On Monday May 6, the London softs markets will be closed for the May Day bank holiday. The New York market will open at 1130 GMT on Monday.

ICE July raw sugar rose 0.28 cent or 1.4 percent at 20.93 cents a lb by 1124 GMT on Friday, having rebounded slightly from a one-year low of 20.50 cents hit on Wednesday.

“We could be seeing physical buying, or short covering,” a London-based sugar futures broker said.

Another London-based broker referred to end-of-the-week short covering from oversold positions.

A bearish target at 20.06 cents per lb remains unchanged for New York July sugar, as indicated by its wave pattern and a Fibonacci projection analysis, according to Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Cane crushing in top sugar producer Brazil reached 4.74 million tonnes by April 15, cane industry association Unica said on Thursday, behind the 6.99 million tonnes crushed by this time last year due to a late start to the harvest.

India might export only another 1 million tonnes of sugar now New Delhi has freed up overseas sales given unattractive prices, bringing total shipments to 4 million tonnes this year in an oversupplied global market, trade and government sources said.

London August white sugar rose $7.10 or 1.3 percent at $566.90 per tonne.

Cocoa futures were barely changed with ICE July up $6 or 0.3 percent at $2,313 a tonne in low volume of 827 lots.

London July cocoa was up 1 pound or 0.1 percent at 1,535 pounds a tonne in thin turnover of 1,097 lots.

Eric Sivry, head of Marex Spectron’s agriculture options brokerage, said the market was quiet with many traders away from their desks for the London cocoa trade dinner.

“It’s been busy in the earlier part of the week with very volatile movements. People will stick with a strict minimum today and avoid doing anything extraordinary,” Sivry said.

Valid cocoa stocks in NYSE Liffe’s nominated warehouses rose to 62,720 tonnes as of April 30 from 56,190 tonnes on April 16, exchange data showed.

Arabica coffee futures edged higher but prices remained within striking distance of last month’s 18-month low.

July arabicas on ICE rose 1.0 cent or 0.6 percent to $1.7680 per lb, above their 18-month low hit in April, basis second month, of $1.7390 per lb.

Stefan Uhlenbrock, analyst with Germany-based F.O. Licht, said arabica prices were likely to remain in a downward trend ahead of an expected large Brazilian harvest, while news that Vietnamese exports had accelerated weighed on robustas.

“For the time being there is enough coffee around so it’s more or less bearish,” Uhlenbrock said.

“I think the market has already priced in that the Brazilian crop will not be as large as it was originally supposed to be. Unless there is a further significant downgrade occurring, the market will remain in a wait and see mode.”

Coffee exports from Honduras, Central America’s top producer, rose 36.1 percent in April compared with the same month last year, while the second biggest grower in the region, Guatemala, saw exports fall in the month.

London July robusta coffee was up $32 or 1.6 percent at $2,007 a tonne in light volume of 1,802 lots.

Certified coffee stocks held in NYSE Liffe nominated warehouses fell to 172,530 tonnes as of April 30 from 181,730 tonnes on April 16, exchange data showed.