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Standard & Poor’s Sees Major Hurdles for Dubai Banks

The ratings agency’s credit analyst Emmanuel Volland said on Wednesday these factors were expected to lead to a major slowdown in business growth and deterioration in asset quality and profitability.

“This comes at a time when liquidity has also deteriorated rapidly. Loans granted by banks in the UAE have been growing annually by an average 35 per cent over the past four years. After Qatar, this is the fastest rate of loan growth observed in the Gulf,” Volland said.

According to S&P’s, the pace of growth even accelerated in the first half of 2008, boosted by massive borrowings from the government and government-related entities.

“While customer deposits also increased rapidly, this could not keep pace with the growth in lending. As a result, the loan-to-deposit ratio exceeds 100 per cent for the whole banking sector, forcing banks to rely on wholesale funding that is more expensive and could prove volatile,” the rating agency said after announcing that it had revised the credit ratings of four UAE banks.

In a statement emailed to Khaleej Times, the ratings agency said it had lowered its long- and short-term counterpart credit ratings on Dubai Islamic Bank to ‘A-/A-2’ from ‘A/A-1’ and revised its outlook on the bank to negative from stable.

S&P’s also revised its outlook on Emirates Bank International and National Bank of Dubai — which have merged to form Emirates NBD — to negative from stable and affirmed its ‘A/A-1’ counterpart credit ratings on the two banks.

The London-based agency also revised its outlook on Sharjah Islamic Bank to stable from positive and affirmed its ‘BBB/A-2’ counterparty credit ratings on the bank; and affirmed its ‘A/A-1’ counterpart credit ratings on Mashreqbank. The outlook on the bank remains stable.

“The rating actions mainly reflect the impact of the difficult global macroeconomic and financing environment. The medium-term risks to Dubai’s economy have, in our view, increased as demand in the real estate sector shows clear signs of abating, raising the possibility of a sharp correction in this market. The impact on Dubai’s overall economy would be significant as construction and real estate account for almost 50 per cent of Dubai’s GDP.”

Despite mounting pressure on the UAE banking sector, mitigating factors do exist. “Rated banks continued to post strong financial performance in the first nine months of 2008 and enjoy adequate financial profiles, helping them to weather deteriorated market conditions,” said Volland. They also benefit from strong government support.

Standard & Poor’s classifies the UAE as “interventionist” toward its banking sector, meaning that it expects strong extraordinary support to systemically important banks in case of need.

“Therefore, the long-term rating on Mashreqbank is one-notch above its stand-alone credit quality owing to its systemic importance. The long-term ratings on EBI, NBD, and DIB are two notches above their respective stand-alone credit quality owing to their systemic importance and their ownership structure dominated by the government of Dubai.”

· issacjohn@khaleejtimes.com