NDA, Lalu alliance work caste arithmetic to gain edge

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NDA, Lalu alliance work caste arithmetic to gain edge

The 2019 elections in Bihar are largely a direct fight between the NDA and the grand alliance.

By Sohail Ashraf

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Published: Wed 10 Apr 2019, 8:18 AM

Last updated: Wed 10 Apr 2019, 10:21 AM

The battlefield of Bihar, an electorally major state with 40 parliamentary constituencies, has turned out to be exciting contest in the wake of new political alignments. While Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) fought the 2014 elections alongside Lalu Prasad Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress as part of the grand alliance, this time around the ruling JD (U) is with the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA and is contesting against the opposition Grand Alliance or Mahagathbandhan, led by the RJD.
The NDA front in the state comprises the BJP, the JD(U) and Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and the grand alliance is represented by the RJD, the Congress, the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), Mukesh Sahni's Vikasheel Insan Party (VIP), and the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) of former union minister Upendra Kushwaha, who parted ways with the NDA.
So the 2019 elections in Bihar are largely a direct fight between the NDA and the grand alliance.
The JD(U) and the BJP are each contesting 17 seats, while the LJP has been allotted six seats. In the Grand Alliance, the RJD is contesting 20 seats, the Congress nine, the RLSP five, while the HAM and the VIP are contesting three seats each. 

Notwithstanding the secular credentials of Nitish Kumar, the sense of alienation among some sections in the state is palpable. Kumar has made prohibition and electricity his main planks in the elections. But caste equations are bound to play a key role in the elections despite his success on these two fronts. His success on the electricity front can be gauged by the fact that the number of power consumers, which stood at 2.4 million in 2005, increased to 14.32 million by January, 2019.
While the upper castes including Brahmin, Bhumihar, Kaystha and Rajput, and backward Kurmi and Koeri communities are expected to support the NDA, Yadavs, Dalits and minorities could throw their electoral weight behind the grand alliance.
Bihar, famous for its alignments and realignments in the past couple of years, has some important constituencies that could witness no-holds-barred fight between the rivals. The first and the foremost is the Begusarai seat where Union Minister Giriraj Singh, who is known for his vituperative outbursts against the minorities, is contesting from the BJP.
Singh was the sitting MP from Gaya but was shifted to Begusarai, which is called the 'Leningrad of Bihar' because of its strong communist influence. He faces Tanweeruddin Hassan of the RJD who had lost the last elections to BJP's Bhola Singh. The constituency has become an interesting battleground after former JNU students union president Kanhaiya Kumar was fielded by the Communist Party of India.
Both Giriraj and Kumar belong to Bhumihar community which has a sizeable population in Begusarai. But Kumar is son of the soil and popular among the youth because of his secular and leftist stance. Giriraj being an outsider may not find it a cakewalk this time despite the BJP's formidable position. While Hassan banks on Yadav-Muslim vote, much depends on minority vote which could either tilt towards Hassan or Kanhaiya. 
Another significant constituency is Patliputra, in capital Patna, where RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav's daughter Misa Bharti is contesting against her uncle and BJP candidate Ram Kirpal Yadav. He had defeated Bharti in the 2014 elections. The work carried by Ram Kirpal in the Patliputra constituency has given him an edge. But this time Yadav sympathy may tilt towards Lalu Prasad, giving his daughter the much needed support.
But the most interesting battle will be witnessed in Patna Sahib constituency where BJP's Union Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad is pitted against rebel BJP MP Shatrughan Sinha, who recently shifted his allegiance to the Congress. Both are from upper caste Kaystha community which has a large population in the area. But then actor-turned politician Sinha has a big fan-following even among the Muslims despite his being the member of the BJP for a long time.
The RJD faces a precarious situation in Saran, the home constituency of Lalu Prasad Yadav and Rabri Devi. The contest here has taken a different turn after the RJD fielded Chandrika Rai, the father-in-law of Tej Pratap Yadav, the elder son of Lalu Prasad, whose troubled marriage has made big news. Tej Pratap is contesting as an independent candidate against Rai after he defied the party.
Former Union minister and MP Rajiv Pratap Rudy, who defeated Rabri in 2014, is again contesting from this constituency, which could give the BJP nominee an advantage after the split of Yadav vote.
Nitish Kumar's home turf Nalanda may be easy going for the JD(U) candidate as there is a sizeable number of Kurmis, the community of Kumar.
Overall, Bihar could witness direct contest unlike some other states, including Uttar Pradesh where multi-cornered contests may spoil the chances of the opposition parties.
sohail@khaleejtimes.com


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