UAE Derby winner will be hard to predict: Jamie Osborne

Jamie Osborne feels the UAE Derby is the hardest of the nine races to pick a winner

Jamie Osborne feels the UAE Derby is the hardest of the nine races to predict on Dubai World Cup night, with the inconsistent form of three-year-olds making it difficult to gauge who will flourish or flounder.

Eight of the 12 runners, including Osborne’s horse Toast of New York, are separated by only eight points in the official ratings (between 100 and 108), while two splits the other four; Giovanni Boldini and Long John leading the way on 115, with both Asmar and Cooptado not far behind on 113.

There then is little to choose between two sectors of the field on the handicapping front and Osborne expects that may well be borne out on the track.

“When you’re sat at home with 50 moderate horses and one good one, it’s safe to say I’ve looked at the opposition,” the 46-year-old said.

“With the age of these horses, it’s the hardest race to really get your head around because some will be improving and some won’t be.

“Two million dollars is never given away is it? It’s going to be a tough race.”

Osborne’s horse is among the lowest rated of the dozen at 102, but he has been prepped for this race since two all-weather victories at Wolverhampton at the back end of 2013.

“He went from 78 to 102 and got a Timeform rating of 111-plus on the back of winning this little novice race (by 16 lengths) at Wolverhampton,” he added.

“Clearly, it then looked like we had a chance of making the cut, so we decided we’d put our eggs into this basket and train him for it.

“I would hate to think that we were here just to make up the numbers. I haven’t had a horse of his quality for some years.

“We’ve brought horses here for the Carnival and nothing has made the cut for Dubai World Cup night.

“He’s stood out from the middle of last summer as being just a bit different to the rest.

“What we’ve concentrated on through the winter is just making sure that we get him here in the right shape.

“You don’t want to be coming here unless you do feel your horse is in good form and if – at any stage – we’d have felt this just isn’t happening, we wouldn’t be here.

“We’ve tried to do everything to make sure that he’ll bring his ‘A Game’ here. He’s done some good work and I’m sure he won’t be an embarrassment.

“Deep down, if I’m really honest, I think there’s a chance he’s good enough, but it’s a bold shout coming off of two wins at Wolverhampton.

“He could be a Group One horse in time and it would be a good time to start showing it wouldn’t it?”