Vaccine nationalism has a winner

Moscow says it has breasted the tape in a race that has no parallels in history

This could be the dose of confidence that the world needs to heal from the pandemic. It's a heady feeling when one finishes first in the race, and Russia has cut through the bureaucratic red tape with a breakthrough vaccine if reports from the Kremlin are to be believed. A preventive jab has already been registered and approved by health authorities in the country. 
President Vladimir Putin's daughter has been among those who have taken the shot. If it's good enough for the president's daughter, it should be good enough for you and me, right? I am not sure because I am no expert but a wave of vaccine nationalism is sweeping the world as countries race to give their seal of approval on vaccines they claim as their own, forget long-term efficacy and safety factors that the World Health Organization is insisting upon. 
Now Moscow says it has breasted the tape in a race that has no parallels in history. Opacity surrounds the Russian announcement as it is not known how many people were tested and there is little clarity on the duration of the trials, though some observers say they were conducted over two months. But transparency has never been the strong point of strongmen like Putin who seek to go one up on the other at every given opportunity. 
Why, even North Korea claims its health researchers are working on a Covid-19 vaccine while putting a lid on the number of cases in the hermit kingdom. The only hitch is the impoverished country claims there are zero cases within its borders and the State Commission of Science and Technology would, therefore, have to conduct trials in other nations. One wonders which country would permit trials of an experimental North Korean vaccine considering its status as a pariah nuclear state that is better at perfecting its missile arsenal than taking vaccine shots. Beijing comes to mind but three Chinese vaccines are already in phase 3 trials, with official support, of course. 
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's dream vaccine to take down the supposedly non-existent pathogen in his country is, however, behind the pack - it has recently entered phase one trials if one is to take the claim seriously. Six other global vaccines are already in phase 3, including two Chinese candidates from Sinopharm and Cansino, and the Oxford candidate which is the frontrunner in race that has taken the conventional route of running more trials. 
India last month speeded up work on a vaccine that it hoped to announce to the nation on its Independence Day on August 15. This independent streak may have been driven by rapidly rising cases that have now exceeded 2.2 million. After Prime Minister Narendra Modi's light and sound show of lamps and utensils, the ruling establishment resorted to lockdowns that failed because of ineffective implementation at the state level.  This 'independence' vaccine is the Indian government's shot at redemption after reading the coronavirus trajectory wrong in the early stage of the outbreak. The nationalist government has, therefore, put its trust in science and roped in a private pharma major to get ahead of the pack. 
But the WHO is warning that a viable vaccine might not even happen as governments back multiple candidates. The race looks more like a perception war to win over the masses whose lives have been shattered by the health crisis and its economic impact.  
So what happens if a government backs the wrong vaccine candidate and more deserving ones fail to get the desired funding? Gavi, the vaccine alliance says there is no guarantee that a shot against Covid-19 would actually succeed. Normally, the success of vaccine candidates is 7 per cent before human trials, which rises to 17 per cent once they reach human trials. 
In a paper published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine, researchers Sarah M. Bartsch, Kelly J. O'Shea, Marie C. Ferguson, Sarah N. Cox, Peter J. Hotez and Bruce Y. Lee, write: "A vaccine with an efficacy between 60 per cent and 80 per cent could obviate the need for other measures under certain circumstances such as much higher, and in some cases, potentially unachievable, vaccination coverages." 
They conclude that a Covid-19 vaccine should have an efficacy of at least 70 per cent to "prevent an epidemic and of at least 80 per cent to largely extinguish an epidemic without any other measures like social distancing." For Moscow, this vaccine race has been won and the Kremlin believes it has scored a propaganda victory much like it winning the space race against the United States in 1957 with the launch of the world's first satellite. Western scientists, however, are sceptical and say Russia has cut corners and not conducted enough trials on humans. The Russia's Direct Investment Fund has spent freely on the national effort which may have completed phase 2, but is being rushed through for political expediency to show national prowess. 
Last month, Washington pumped in $1.6 billion for a likely vaccine from Pfizer and German biotechnology firm BioNTech, with another $450 million to another company for a unique therapy against the disease.  But Russia got there first, again, and the US can stare into space as the world savours the Sputnik V moment hoping  that it emerges from this scary odyssey in good health.  -allan@khaleejtimes.com