• Home
• /
• Opinion

US must not give up soft power as a strategy in the Middle East

Trump has already put the US on the back foot by withdrawing forces from Syria.

The greater Middle East is beset with social unrest, financial instability, and mass protest. This has led analysts to question whether a second Arab Spring is in the making. However, the optimism that greeted the first wave of protests in 2011, when many hoped a new era of democracy and good governance would transform the Middle East, has been replaced with caution. Political instability in Iraq, Lebanon, Egypt, and Iran, could escalate further and lead to widespread violence and chaos as it did in Syria and Libya.

In Washington, American policymakers are watching this volatile situation with unease. President Donald Trump has already put the US on the back foot by withdrawing forces from Syria. America's dubious Nato ally Turkey and long-time rival Russia must be both surprised and delighted that the US has given up so much ground, seemingly without any resistance. Any further miscalculation could threaten to further damage American influence in the Middle East. It is a Catch-22 situation for the US. Do too little and the US will face criticism that it is neglecting its duty to support the protesters and their aspirations for functioning democracy, and if it gets involved the US may find itself sucked into another draining foreign conflict, or what President Trump likes to call "stupid, endless wars".

Naturally, the policy options available to the US will depend upon what events transpire in the Middle East over the next couple of months. The situation in Iraq presently seems the direst. The total number of protesters who have died since October is believed to be over 342, as per the statistics from the Iraqi Parliamentary Human Rights Committee. Around 15,000 have been injured, too. The protests are largely in response to financial difficulties, widespread corruption, and the failure to provide basic services.

Iraq is arguably of the most importance to US interests in the region, for if it descends too far into chaos; rivals such as Iran will move swiftly to exploit the vacuum. Strategists in Washington might welcome the news that protesters have directed some of their ire at the Iranian influence in the country. US-Iranian relations reached a low point this year following incidents in the Gulf of Oman and the US has pursued a strategy of isolating Iran with sanctions and diplomatic measures. However, there is a risk that the Iraqi population could turn their anger away from their government and its Iranian allies and instead turn against each other. Iraq has a long history of sectarian violence, with Saddam Hussein's brutal oppression of the Shia and Kurds followed by a period of intense civil war after his fall from power. As long as protesters demand reform from their government, hope remains that positive change can come in Iraq, but the spectre of sectarian bloodshed will likely haunt this troubled country for generations and the threat of its return is never far away.

The Lebanese government is likewise plagued by a lack of public faith and popularity. Protesters have been calling for an end to corruption and the need for widespread reform since the government proposed new taxes in October. A local party official who was killed on November 13, after a soldier opened fire, became the first reported death, although rumours of four or more deaths were circulating last month. Due to its deeply diverse demographics, the domestic balance of power between Lebanon's religious communities has always been a sensitive issue threatening an often fragile peace. Fortunately, the protests have transcended sectarian lines and demonstrators of all faiths have marched against the failing government. Whether government reform results from the protest movement remains to be seen, but if unity remains among the protesters, then at least a stronger basis for national unity may begin to solidify at the grassroots levels of Lebanese society.

The Trump administration has only shown concern for events in Lebanon relating to Hezbollah and has been trying to damage the organisation with sanctions. However, Washington would do well to pay more attention because its allies in Tel Aviv will be casting cautious eyes towards its northern border.

The US faces complex foreign policy questions in Midd East. There are no easy answers, but generally, the US should denounce any human rights abuses or blatant attempts to silence protesters. However, Washington must be careful not to alienate the present governments of Iraq, Lebanon, and Egypt too far in case they are able to stay in power. Unsavoury they may be, but the US will still need open diplomatic channels to whoever holds the reins of power in these countries, especially following the US's weakened position in the Middle East. In the meantime, the US can rely on soft power strategies to boost its democratic credentials on the world stage. This might include foreign aid, engagement with the UN Human Rights Council and bilateral talks. Soft power options rarely achieve dramatic results, but they can be used productively until more compelling policy options emerge.

Nadia Hussain is political analyst and researcher based in Norway