Small steps towards strategic calm in Yemen

So where will this ceasefire lead to? That depends on both sides, more so on the Houthis.

Published: Wed 23 Jan 2019, 8:36 PM

Last updated: Wed 23 Jan 2019, 10:37 PM

The ceasefire between the Yemeni government and the Houthi rebels is mercifully holding in the strategic port city of Hodeidah. What could have been a bad situation has not been made worse and credit must go to the Arab coalition that refused to be drawn into random firefights despite several provocations from the rebels. The Arab coalition's strategic patience has paid off in the interest of ordinary Yemenis who have had enough of the war that has killed more than 10,000 people, according to conservative estimates. Millions of civilians have been uprooted from their homes for a war they did not cause or seek to escalate. Now is the time for a cessation of hostilities and the United Nations has managed to keep the peace in Hodeidah. Any escalation in the port city would be nothing short of a catastrophe.

So where will this ceasefire lead to? That depends on both sides, more so on the Houthis. Their intentions will be tested. The Arab coalition's strategic patience does not mean the group will be given free rein to resort to intermittent violence with arms supplies from their patrons in Tehran. The UAE is clear that the United Nations is leading the effort for a cessation of hostilities, and would do all it can to support efforts by the UN's special envoy Martin Griffiths. He's managed a deal to make the guns go silent, but it will take more to reach a phase of 'strategic calm'. Meanwhile, a prisoner swap agreement is expected to be reached in 10 days, a representative of the Yemeni government has said. But that's only one of the easier pacts that will be made in the larger push for peace. For that to happen, the Houthis should convince the world community that Iran is out of the equation. They should strive for confidence-building measures which, as we mentioned earlier, could pave the way for a state of 'strategic calm'. This could open the window to a wider peace process and talks. It's important to take it slow in Yemen; a step-by-step process is advisable for cool heads to prevail.