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SAARC summit: Whither South Asia?

NEW DELHI: THE SAARC summit in Islamabad (January 4-6) marks the organisation's 19th year in existence. When one looks back at the activities of this regional organisation, one comes to the inescapable conclusion that the organisation has been active in discussions but tardy in forging concrete cooperation among its seven member countries.

Practically all the seven countries are subject to one kind or the other of centrifugal violent forces. This predicament is compounded by external involvement in these movements.

Individual economic predicaments of SAARC countries are slightly better than the political and security predicaments. India is doing well on all counts. So are Bhutan and Sri Lanka, to some extent. Bangladesh and Pakistan, though suffering from problems related to inadequate economic infrastructure and in ensuring optimum levels of economic growth, are not really in crisis.

This is not denying the fact that in terms of the quality of life index of the UNDP or levels of unemployment, lack of health facilities and illiteracy, South Asia remains one of the most backward areas in the globe.

Nuclear weaponisation of Pakistan and India has introduced a new element of regional apprehension about managing the volatile security environment inherent in disputes affecting bilateral relations between India and Pakistan. What then can one expect from forthcoming SAARC summit, given this tense context?

SAARC has had a decidedly chequered career since December 1985 when it was established. The SAARC Charter stipulated that the primary objective was to focus on development and economic progress of the people of the region through regional cooperation among the seven countries. SAARC was to deliberately avoid discussions on bilateral disputes to ensure that tensions rooted in them do not stand in the way of developing economic and technological cooperation.

In overall terms, SAARC set in motion a number of consultative arrangements, projects for cooperation in the spheres of education, culture and the creation of a South Asian Preferential Trade Arrangement (SAPTA).

While seminars, workshops and inter-governmental consultative groups have met and discussed issues specifically allotted to them, it is clear that SAARC cannot claim to have a single macro-level tangible project or programme to show, which has covered the people of the seven countries in a beneficial and notable manner.

Even where agreements were reached as in the case of the establishment of SAPTA, its actual implementation showed reticence and withdrawal symptoms, affecting the process. Member countries had to resort to sub-regional and bilateral arrangements below the level of SAARC as a collective entity, to carry forward projects, particularly in the economic and development spheres.

Even the more recent phenomenon of serious concern, the phenomenon of terrorism, has not been addressed effectively by SAARC over the last two years because of self-motivated interpretations given by different member-nations. If one is to go by the past record, effective and concrete cooperation between SAARC countries, though possible and eminently desirable, would be a very gradual process if one were to be most optimistic. The second factor is the attitude characterising participant leaders towards the next summit.

The heads of state or of government of Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, the Maldives and Sri Lanka, while desiring concrete cooperation, remain of the view that no substantive progress can be achieved unless India and Pakistan move way from their adversarial relationship to solving issues between them in a pragmatic manner.

Pakistan, as the host country of the summit, has given signals that it would like to do whatever it can to make the summit a success. Musharraf offered to set aside the UN resolutions and move half way down towards India to resolve the Kashmir issue if India reciprocates. Pakistan's government spokespersons have indicated a willingness to support the proposal to transform SAPTA into an agreement for the establishment of a South Asia Free Trade Area (SAFTA).

An interesting clarification was given by Pakistan that this approach also implies it will not link the Kashmir issue to the implementation of this proposal. But then the proverbial contradictions affecting the region have reappeared with Bangladesh expressing reservations over the SAFTA proposals.

India has indicated that it will focus on two vital issues during the summit's deliberations, countering terrorism and moving forward on economic, developmental and trading cooperation. India's participation in the SAARC summit, however, is clouded by negative ambiguities about how India will deal with the Pakistani leadership during the summit. Vajpayee had indicated that he is willing to meet Jamali in Islamabad. He did not deny possibilities of interactions with Musharraf either.

But Indian Foreign Secretary Shashank, in his Press statements between December 28 and 30, indicated that there are no possibilities of such meetings except unavoidable encounters between Vajpayee and Pakistani leaders during the summit meeting. Shashank has categorically ruled out any discussions between Vajpayee and the Pakistani leaders on bilateral issues till cross-border terrorism comes to an end.

Reports on the meetings of the Foreign secretaries and the SAARC Council of Ministers say that the SAARC summit will result in some kind of formal declarations. The heads of state and government will consider and finalise arrangements for the transformation of SAPTA into SAFTA within a stipulated time-frame before the end of the first decade of this century and that the summit declaration will touch upon issues related to globalisation, technological cooperation, poverty alleviation and interaction with other regional groupings, particularly in the ASEAN region.

One can expect some concrete declarations of intent on these subjects. An interesting dimension of the summit is suggestions from the major chambers of commerce and industry of SAARC countries, particularly of India and Pakistan, that purposive decisions should be taken to move forward on the creation of SAFTA. The Confederation of Indian Industry and the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry have prepared position papers and circulated them to both the government and chambers of commerce and industry.

Perhaps for the first time, non-governmental apex bodies of SAARC countries, dealing with economic affairs, are getting involved in the summit deliberations. The assessment of these organisations is that the Islamabad summit provides a valuable opportunity to move forward in the spheres of economic and developmental cooperation. There is also the suggestion, though there are no definite decisions, that the summit should discuss the issue of ensuring energy security and infrastructural connectivity for all the members of SAARC.

One hopes that even if no operational decisions are taken, these subjects will form part of the deliberations as they are relevant to the long-term interests of peoples of the SAARC region.

One has to emphasise that the whole atmosphere, and the content of deliberations at the summit, will definitely be influenced by the interaction between Vajpayee and Pakistani leaders. Refusing to meet Musharraf and Jamali, for some political discussions on the margins, would be both churlish and indicative of a certain lack of confidence on the part of India, even an interiority complex.

Going to a country and refusing to meet leaders of the host country is on all counts bad manners and it negates the logic which has impelled Vajpayee's peace initiative since last summer.

That the delayed summit in Islamabad at last is being held in January is itself a good thing. One hopes that at least minimal commitments to the future will emanate from the summit. - Indo-Asian News Service

J.N. Dixit is a former Indian Foreign secretary.