GCC will emerge stronger after the coronavirus crisis

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The crisis is set to re-define the region's economic landscape while furthering the political one.
The crisis is set to re-define the region's economic landscape while furthering the political one.

Published: Wed 8 Apr 2020, 10:14 AM

Last updated: Wed 8 Apr 2020, 12:27 PM

The more things change in the Middle East, the more they remain the same.
That is likely to be the case once the collective lockdown to ward off the corona pandemic eases across the globe in the weeks and months ahead. Once the dust settles, the changes evident in the Middle East will likely remain confined to the economic front while the political landscape remains the same, if not worsen further.
One can argue that the enormous repercussions of the lockdowns will be a massive strain on the economies already embattled by conflicts, and this will have a cascading effect on the political front. Rightly so, but even that may not fundamentally alter the political dynamics of the region.
Analysts have started projecting a new economic order emerging from the ashes of a potential global depression. It could be defined by a dampened demand for oil, already turbulent in recent weeks, a breakdown of industries around the world - especially aviation, manufacturing and tourism - and a renewed trade war in the name of protectionism.
However, a familiar response in times of adversity and a lack of progress in political resolution of crises are likely to define the Middle East response no matter how frustrating that may sound for some.
It is not as if Middle East is opposed to change or the region isn't affected by transformations around the world. In fact, major shifts have taken place in and around the region since the Spanish Flu hit an estimated 500 million people around the world 100 years ago.
The Great Depression happened around a decade later. It was followed by the Second World War and the re-organisation of the Middle East brought about by the Treaty of Sèvres (almost exactly 100 years ago), dismembering the Ottoman Empire.
Then, more recently, the collapse of the Soviet Union ushered in a unipolar world, which impacted if not exacerbated at least a few conflicts in the Middle East. September 11 and the so-called Arab Spring could be described as the most recent events to have had a devastating impact on the region.
The war in Iraq and the ongoing conflicts in Syria, Libya and Yemen continue to shatter the region. Of course, no history of the modern Middle East can be written without mentioning the Israel-Palestine conflict, which incidentally is also a 100 years old now. 
All these conflicts have been defined by a lack of progress on the resolution front and that isn't likely to change despite something as earth-shattering as the coronavirus pandemic. In other words, the crisis is set to re-define the region's economic landscape while furthering the political one.
Dr Hussein Ibish, senior resident scholar at the Washington-based Arab Gulf States Institute, had a succinct take on the "populist and nativist narratives" building in the face of the Covid-19 crisis.
Addressing an e-symposium, Confronting the Challenges of Covid-19: A New Global Outlook, earlier this week, Dr Ibish said that the pandemic has revealed that actors seeking to distort and regress the global order are not changing their policies.
According to him, any expectation that aggressive regional hegemons in the Middle East, such as Iran and Turkey, would change their rhetoric has proven to be unrealistic thus far. Going by the track record and the rather stubborn nature of politics in the region, this is unlikely to change anytime soon.
The narrative that Dr Ibish mentioned applies to both political and economic landscapes. International disagreements over oil prices have intensified in the wake of the pandemic. The first quarter of 2020 has witnessed a rapid decline in oil prices and a major contraction in its demand, thereby compounding its economic impact.
The e-symposium highlighted another prospect, "tailored renegotiation of the conditions of free trade," which augurs well for the continuation of trade and international flow of goods. That clearly suggests a global rethink to allow animal instinct to prevail when the world starts to rebuild again. Middle East wouldn't be far behind on joining that bandwagon.
While optimists might predict slowdown of fighting in Syria and Libya, the one positive outcome could be another thrust toward building greater cohesion within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
The GCC has shown the way in an otherwise gloomy wider Middle East and this would be good news on political as well as economic fronts.
Ehtesham Shahid is a senior journalist and editor at TRENDS Research & Advisory
 

By Ehtesham Shahid


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