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Business as usual won't work if we must save the earth

We have entered a new geological epoch, the Anthropocene, in which human activity - in particular, economic activity - has been the dominant factor influencing Earth's climate and environment. In the Anthropocene, our planet's life-support system is changing faster than ever.
Climate change now represents a clear and present danger. If our planet becomes just 2°C warmer than pre-industrial temperatures, we may be placed irreversibly on the path toward "Hothouse Earth" - a scenario in which temperatures are many degrees warmer than today, sea levels are considerably higher, and extreme weather events are more common - and more devastating - than ever.
This need not be the case. For its 50th anniversary, the Club of Rome updated the "Limits to Growth" report's "World 3" computer model. Using economic and social data from the last five decades, the so-called Earth 3 simulation provides new projections about the future impact of human activity.
We based our analysis on the UN Sustainable Development Goals, agreed upon by world leaders in 2015.
The business-as-usual scenario, our analysis shows, would not bring significant progress toward achieving the SDGs or boosting environmental sustainability by 2030. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the scenario characterized by faster economic growth would also pose a serious threat to environmental sustainability.
But even a third scenario, which includes stronger policies to protect the environment, would put the planet's stability at risk. In any of these scenarios, human wellbeing could improve in the short term, but would be severely undermined in the longer term, as we blew past planetary boundaries and tipping points.
There is just one scenario that can deliver improvements to human wellbeing in an environmentally sustainable way: the path of "transformational change," brought about by a shift to unconventional policies and measures. - Johan Rockström is Professor and former director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre at Stockholm University.
- Project Syndicate