Disruptive developments could curb carbon emissions

Global passenger transport will increase nearly three-fold between 2015 to 2050, from 44 trillion to 122 trillion passenger- kilometres.
However, potential disruptions within and outside the transportation industry could significantly change the transport sector, according to the International Transport Forum's (ITF) 2019 Transport Outlook report, released at the annual ITF Summit in Leipzig, Germany.
ITF at the OECD is an intergovernmental organisation with 59-member countries. It acts as a think tank for transport policy and organises the annual summit of transport ministers. A total of 1,100 delegates, including 41 ministers, from 72 nations are attending the three-day summit. The event brings together thought leaders, policymakers, and transport companies, tracking the changes in the sector.
The UAE delegation, a member country of the ITF since 2017, is being led by Abdullah Al Nuaimi, the minister of Infrastructure Development and chairman of the Federal Transport Authority - Land and Marine.
Furthermore, the transport leaders have unanimously recognised that transport plays an important role in achieving goals of the Paris Agreement and reducing global carbon emissions. Participants of the Ministers' Roundtable at the ITF said there is a need to include all transport modes in the global effort to achieve low emissions and to enhance stronger collaborations among all stakeholders.
The participants of the Minister's Roundtable agreed to consider a set of eight initiatives while developing national transport policies, including prioritising energy efficient transport modes and vehicles and ensure safe, efficient, and competitive transport systems that reduce emissions of transport-related carbon emissions. The leaders have also agreed to work together to reduce transport-related carbon emissions, and to increase sharing of knowledge.
Swedish minister of Infrastructure, Tomas Eneroth, said on the sidelines of the announcement: "We need to pursue a fair and equitable transition to a low carbon transport economy. We need to share knowledge with local and regional companies as well as cities and civil society."
Addressing the media, ITF secretary-general, Young Tae Kim, expressed his interest to include more Asian, Mena, and Latin American countries as members of the ITF improving mobility as a service across the globe. "Today, policymakers must set guidelines in the face of fast, profound, often disruptive change."
He was joined by Jeong Ryeol Kim, the second vice minister for transport, ministry of land, infrastructure and transport, who said: "Technological advancement in ICT and transport sectors have strengthened regional connectivity but it would also bring technological imbalance in different regions and countries, in regard to the quality and speed of such development. The role of ITF is to mediate such development."
Key findings of ITF transport outlook
ITF's 2019 Transport Outlook report revealed that global demand for transport will continue to grow dramatically over the next three decades. The report said that China and India will generate a third of the passenger travel by 2050, compared with a quarter in 2015.
The impacts of 11 developments that could significantly disrupt the transport sector was also modelled for the ITF Transport Outlook 2019.
Jari Kauppila, the head of quantitative policy analysis and foresight, ITF said: "The implementation of more ambitious de-carbonisation policies alters the projected pathways for transport demand and related carbon commissions."
He explained that a massive uptake of shared mobility could halve vehicle-kilometres travelled in cities, and reduce urban transport CO2 by 30 per cent by 2050. Quoting projections from the report Kaupilla said: "Widespread use of autonomous vehicles would likely increase total passenger-kilometres slightly but could still lower urban CO2 emissions - if occupancy rates are high. Self-driving trucks would shift freight from rail and rivers to trucks, with negligible impact on carbon emissions."
Other key findings of the report noted that more teleworking could lower the number of urban passenger-kilometres travelled and related carbon emissions by around two per cent in 2050. Alternative aviation fuels could dramatically reduce carbon emissions from passenger aviation and electrification of short-haul flights would lead to a 55 per cent drop in domestic aviation emissions.
"However, such carbon reductions will only be achieved with policies in place to guide the disruptive developments. Left to themselves, disruptions would result in much smaller emissions reductions," said Kaupilla.
To master the challenges in the coming three decades, the report and its researchers encouraged transport policymakers to - anticipate disruptions from outside the transport sector, to create policy frameworks that foster innovation, and to set more ambitious policies to stop the growth of transport CO2 emissions.
- dhanusha@khaleejtimes.com

Dhanusha Gokulan

• dhanusha@khaleejtimes.com