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When will UAE grocery bills drop? Retailers explain Strait of Hormuz impact
The UAE retail leaders say easing freight costs and improved shipping confidence will gradually filter through to consumer prices over the coming months
- PUBLISHED: Thu 18 Jun 2026, 8:43 AM
[Editor's Note: Follow Khaleej Times live blog amid US-Israel-Iran war for the latest regional developments.]
Shoppers across the UAE could soon find their grocery bills easing and store shelves better stocked, as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the US-Iran peace deal begin to restore confidence in one of the world's busiest maritime trade routes.
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While the geopolitical relief is being felt immediately in business sentiment, retailers in the UAE say the tangible benefits for everyday consumers, in the form of stable prices and improved product availability, will take a few months to materialise as shipping contracts, freight rates and inventory cycles work through their natural adjustment periods.
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Prices of consumer goods have increased in the UAE and globally over the past three months due to higher fuel prices, which crossed $114 a barrel during the conflict, after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical artery for global trade, and any disruption to it has historically pushed up shipping costs, insurance premiums and transit times – costs that retailers often pass on to consumers through higher prices on everything from food staples to imported merchandise.
Dr Dhananjay Datar, chairman and managing director of Adil Group of Supermarkets, said the return of stability to the region is an extremely positive development for the UAE and the wider GCC economy.
He expects shipping companies to gain greater confidence, with lower risk surcharges, improved vessel movement and smoother logistics operations following the reopening.
“This will help retailers maintain steady inventory levels and ensure timely delivery of goods, particularly food products, consumer essentials, and imported merchandise,” Dr Datar said, adding that the UAE, as a major trading hub, stands to benefit significantly from the restoration of normal maritime operations.
For shoppers, he said, the long-term payoff could be reflected in more stable prices, better product availability, and reduced inflationary pressure on imported goods.
Don't expect overnight price cuts
Despite the optimism, retail leaders were careful to temper expectations of an immediate drop in prices at checkout counters.
Kamal Vachani, deputy CEO, partner and director at Al Maya Group, said the positive impact would likely unfold in phases, with improved market confidence being the first and most immediate benefit felt by businesses and investors. "Over the coming months, as shipping schedules normalise and logistics efficiencies improve, retailers may begin to experience better freight rates and more predictable supply chains," he said.
He added that for consumers, this would gradually translate into improved product availability, enhanced promotional activity, and more stable pricing across categories, with the UAE's strong retail infrastructure and strategic location positioning the market to capitalise on these gains relatively quickly.
Mark Mortimer-Davies, CEO of Choithrams, said the peace deal is positive for the region to be back to a situation where trade and shipping can move more freely again.
"That said, the recent disruption has created some uncertainty, and we expect there will be a short period where businesses take stock and assess the new reality. Some categories, particularly fresh and short shelf-life products, may take a little longer to stabilise as importers and exporters rebuild confidence in supply routes and shipping schedules. In addition, manufacturers around the world are still dealing with higher costs, and while some of these costs may come down quickly, others will take longer to work through the supply chain," he added.
Still selling at high prices
Mortimer-Davies added that there is also stock currently arriving in the region that was shipped during the period of higher freight and insurance costs. "As a result, it may take some time before prices fully stabilise, with improvements likely to become more visible during the third quarter."
Anis Sajan, vice-chairman of Danube Group, was more direct about why shoppers shouldn't expect instant relief.
"Consumers will benefit, but it will take a little time. Most retailers are currently selling products that were shipped when freight costs were much higher, so those costs are already included in current prices," he said.
According to Sajan, the benefit will only filter through as fresh shipments, booked at the new, lower transportation costs, begin arriving in the UAE.
"If shipping costs continue to fall and oil prices remain stable, people in the UAE should see better product availability and more competitive prices over the next few months," he said.
The view from the shipping industry echoed that note of cautious optimism.
Haris Shaikh, CEO of Gallop Shipping in Dubai, said the reopening was good news for both retailers and shoppers but stressed that businesses need time to adjust.
"Many retailers are still selling products bought when shipping costs were higher. If the situation remains stable, shoppers could see more stable prices and better product availability over the next few months," he added.
Retailers suggest that as new, cheaper shipments work their way into store inventories over the coming weeks and months, UAE shoppers can expect a gradual, rather than sudden, improvement in both prices and product choice.
