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Weakened WTO, Trump’s tariffs regime, and Hormuz closure are defining era of trade: DMCC chief
Despite all the disturbances, DMCC predicts trade will remain resilient, with growth expected to slow to 1.9% in 2026 before slowly recovering to 2.6% in 2027
- PUBLISHED: Wed 17 Jun 2026, 5:20 PM
The World Trade Organization’s weakening position, US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policy, and the Strait of Hormuz closure have been among the defining moments for the new era of trade, said the CEO of Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC).
“We described a world where traditional trade alliances were fracturing, where regionalisation was rising, and the rules-based order was under pressure,” Ahmed Bin Sulayem, the centre’s CEO, said at the Future of Trade report launch on Wednesday.
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“The WTO's authority has weakened further. Its affiliate body remains defunct, and at the March 2026 ministerial, members failed to renew the e-commerce moratorium for the first time since 1998,” Bin Sulayem clarified. “That failure alone is estimated to put 159 billion U.S. dollars in annual trade at risk.”
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Rupture in the economy
“President Trump's tariff regime, the acceleration of AI, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz with consequences for shipping, energy supply, food security, and global market stability,” Bin Sulayem explained. He called these factors a rupture in the economy, rather than mere disruptions.
According to the report, Trump’s second term delivered a seismic shock to the economy, with 19.7 per cent of global merchandise imports affected by tariffs, up from 12.6 per cent the previous year.
More recently, the Strait of Hormuz’s closure proved to be a stark demonstration of how quickly a disruption to a single critical artery can destabilize energy markets, supply chains, and food security simultaneously, the CEO added.
Despite all these disturbances, the DMCC report predicted that trade will remain resilient, with growth expected to slow to 1.9 per cent in 2026 before slowly recovering to 2.6 per cent in 2027.
Growing trade between the global south
Trade between developing countries far outpaced trade between advanced economies, the report found. South-South trade between developing countries accounts for 35 per cent of all global trade activity.
Countries like the UAE, India, and Singapore are what the DMCC chief called “middle powers” who are the “quiet winners” at the moment. The report highlighted these countries’ capabilities when it comes to securing investments and redirecting supply chains.
“Diversification is the right answer to an immediate problem. The window to act is narrow. This is where middle powers have a distinctive role,” Bin Sulayem explained.
On the other hand, North-North trade was around 25 per cent.
AI-goods surpass non-AI trade
AI-related goods, like semiconductor chips and data centres, expanded five times the rate of non-AI goods in the first half of 2025.
“AI-related goods represent 15 per cent of global trade by volume, yet drove 43 per cent of its growth in the first half of 2025. This is reshaping which countries, corridors, and sectors are gaining trade influence,” Bin Sulayem said.
UAE ranked top recipient of greenfield investment
The UAE is identified as a key connector economy combining strategic geography, advanced infrastructure, capital, commodities expertise and diversified trade relationships to support companies operating across multiple markets and trading systems.
This positioning is already translating into capital flows: the report notes that the UAE ranked among the top five recipients of greenfield investment globally in 2024, evidence that investment is following economies able to operate credibly across blocs.
“Both India and the United Arab Emirates ranked among the top five recipients of greenfield investment globally in 2024. This is not always the most efficient way to allocate capital. Yet, it is currently the most prudent and safest way,” the DMCC chief said.
Hind Aldah is a business reporter based in Sharjah. In her spare time, you will find her playing classical guitar, painting amateur oil paintings, or crocheting the same old scarf that leads nowhere.