UAE markets show resilience amid global trade optimism

The UAE’s financial markets displayed cautious optimism this week, with the Dubai Financial Market (DFM) General Index climbing 0.37 per cent and the FTSE ADX General Index edging up 0.07 per cent. The modest gains reflect a broader global market pause, driven by US President Donald Trump’s decision to extend the deadline for proposed 50 per cent tariffs on EU goods until July 9, 2025.

This move has fuelled hopes that trade tensions, which have loomed over global markets, may be easing, providing a temporary boost to investor sentiment in the UAE and beyond.

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In Dubai, the stock index reached a 17-year high last week, underpinned by robust first-quarter earnings and a thriving non-oil economy. Investors increasingly favour UAE stocks over the larger Saudi market, drawn by the country’s economic diversification and resilience.

Abu Dhabi’s market, while quieter, saw steady trading, supported by rising oil prices and limited corporate developments. Aldar Properties, a key player in Abu Dhabi, reported strong revenue from a recent project, though its shares dipped slightly. Similarly, GFH Financial Group maintained a positive outlook from FAB Securities, buoyed by solid Q1 results, despite minor share price declines.

The UAE’s markets are navigating a complex global landscape. Trading volumes remained subdued due to holidays in the US and the UK, but the extension of the EU tariff deadline has provided a reprieve.

Josh Gilbert, a market analyst at eToro, noted that investor sentiment has strengthened over the past month, with markets looking past the “trade war noise”. He emphasised that the provisional trade truces with the EU and China signal progress, though the lack of permanent resolutions keeps the risk of escalation alive. “The willingness of the US administration to negotiate is encouraging, but without structural changes to tariff policy, uncertainty persists,” Gilbert said.

Regionally, the UAE boosted its financial ties with Azerbaijan through a new agreement aimed at enhancing regulatory exchanges. This deal underscores the UAE’s strategic push to deepen economic collaboration, potentially influencing sectors like banking and investment in the coming months. The accord aligns with the UAE’s broader vision to position itself as a global financial hub, leveraging its stable economic environment and strategic geographic position.

 Globally, markets reflected similar optimism. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 1.7 per cent, driven by hopes of a US-Japan trade deal, while EuroStoxx futures rose 1.6 per cent, and S&P 500 futures gained about 1.0 per cent, according to Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. She highlighted the significance of the postponed EU tariff deadline, which gives European officials until July 9 to negotiate.

 However, Ozkardeskaya cautioned that upcoming economic data, including May flash inflation figures from major European economies and the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, will be critical in shaping market trajectories. A stronger euro may have mitigated the impact of rising oil prices, she noted, but inflationary pressures remain a concern.

 Despite the positive sentiment, risks persist. Last week’s unexpected tariff threat on Apple underscored the unpredictability of US trade policy under Trump, a dynamic that continues to challenge markets.

 Gilbert pointed out that while trade progress supports risk assets, investor focus remains on dominant tech stocks, with dip-buying evident during pullbacks. Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report is expected to be a key market catalyst, potentially influencing global and UAE investor sentiment.

 According to market analysts, the UAE’s markets are well-positioned to capitalise on their non-oil growth and regional financial partnerships. However, their trajectory will depend on global trade outcomes and economic indicators. As negotiations continue and key data releases loom, UAE investors remain cautiously optimistic, balancing local strengths with global uncertainties, they said.

Issac John

issacjohn@khaleejtimes.com