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UAE GDP to grow 5.6% in 2026, same as last year, says Central Bank
Economic activity across the GCC is estimated to have strengthened markedly, with growth rising from 2.5 per cent in 2024 to 4.3 per cent in 2025
- PUBLISHED: Wed 18 Mar 2026, 4:31 PM
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The UAE’s GDP is projected to grow at a strong pace of 5.6 per cent this year, led by the non-oil sector, shrugging off concerns around the regional conflict, according to the Central Bank of the UAE’s latest report.
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The apex bank expects the country’s GDP to grow faster than the average GCC GDP growth of 4.8 per cent this year, making it the second highest after Qatar’s 6.1 per cent.
The UAE’s GDP grew at the same pace of 5.6 per cent last year, it said.
“Economic activity across the GCC is estimated to have strengthened markedly, with growth rising from 2.5 per cent in 2024 to 4.3 per cent in 2025. The upturn has been driven largely by stronger expansion in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, particularly across non-hydrocarbon sectors,” the UAE Central Bank said.
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“Financial services, manufacturing, and wholesale and retail trade have remained resilient, supported by ongoing diversification efforts and higher oil production. Tourism and transportation, benefiting from large-scale infrastructure development and expanding connectivity, are also expected to play an increasingly important role in supporting the region’s growth momentum,” it said in its March 2026 note.
Most analysts and ratings agencies expect the regional military conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran to be short-lived. Hence, the impact on the UAE and GCC economies will be minimal overall, barring a few sectors.
S&P Global Ratings said earlier this month that the UAE economy is expected to remain resilient despite escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, supported by strong fiscal buffers, diversified growth drivers, and one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth portfolios.
The agency reaffirmed the UAE’s ‘AA/A-1+’ sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook, underscoring the country’s exceptional fiscal and external strength, even as regional conflict poses short-term economic risks. It also estimates that the UAE government’s consolidated net asset position will reach around 184 per cent of GDP in 2026, placing it among the strongest sovereign balance sheets globally.
