Stocks crumble in vicious sell-off as 'goldilocks' trade unravels

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Stocks crumble in vicious sell-off as goldilocks trade unravels

Mumbai - Shares are tumbling in Asia after a wild day for US markets.

By Reuters/ IANS

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Published: Tue 6 Feb 2018, 6:55 AM

Last updated: Tue 6 Feb 2018, 9:46 PM

 A rout in global equities deepened in Asia on Tuesday as inflation worries gripped financial markets, sending US stock futures sinking further into the red after Wall Street suffered its biggest decline since 2011 in a vicious sell-off 
S&P mini futures fell as much as 3.0 per cent to four-month lows in Asia, extending their losses from the record peak hit just over a week ago to 12 per cent.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slid 4.3 per cent, which would be its biggest fall since the yuan devaluation shock in August 2015, turning red on the year for the first time in 2018.
Japan's Nikkei dived 6.8 per cent to near four-month lows while Taiwan shares lost 5.5 per cent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped 4.9 per cent.
Monday's stock market rout left two of the most popular exchange-traded products that investors use to benefit from calm rather than volatile conditions facing potential liquidation, market participants said.
The ructions in markets come after investors have ridden a nearly nine-year bull run, with low global rates sparking a revival in economic growth and bright corporate earnings.
That good times may be nearing at end if Wall Street is anything to go by. US stocks plunged in highly volatile trading on Monday, with the Dow industrials falling nearly 1,600 points during the session, its biggest intraday decline in history, as investors grappled with rising bond yields and potentially higher inflation.
"The amount of the sell-off that we are seeing is normal. The speed at which we are doing it is not normal," said Michael Purves, chief global strategist at Weeden & Co in New York.
"Where does the market rout end? I think we are pretty close to a selling climax here. The fundamentals are pretty good. The only thing that is really different is that bond yields got up to 2.8 per cent."
The benchmark S&P 500 slumped 4.1 per cent and the Dow 4.6 per cent, suffering their biggest per centage drops since August 2011 as a long-awaited pullback from record highs deepened.
Before Monday's fall, the index had not seen a pullback of more than 5 per cent for more than 400 sessions, which analysts said was the longest such streak in history.
"Since last autumn, investors had been betting on the goldilocks economy - solid economic expansion, improving corporate earnings and stable inflation. But the tide seems to have changed," said Norihiro Fujito, senior investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.
The trigger for the sell-off was a sharp rise in US bond yields following Friday's data that showed US wages increasing at the fastest pace since 2009, raising the alarm about higher inflation and with it potentially higher interest rates.
"There is weakness across various equity sectors, but none so large the market is likely to fall through them. My money remains on equities - but rotating (and buying on weakness) into 'value' areas of the market that have lagged in the recent momentum-driven rally," said James Bateman, chief investment officer for multi asset at Fidelity International,
"I'd also be avoiding stocks where dividend yields aren't backed up by strong free cash flow and a solid balance sheet," he added.
The 10-year US Treasuries yield rose to as high as 2.885 per cent on Monday, its highest in four years and 47 basis points above the 2.411 per cent seen at the end of 2017.
But a massive fall in share prices prompted an about-turn, and in Asian trade on Tuesday, it fell back to as low as 2.662 per cent.
Fed fund futures are now pricing in only two rate hikes this year, a sea change from only a few days ago when they priced in about 80 per cent chance of three hikes with the market even rife with talk of four hikes.
The CBOE Volatility index, the closely followed "fear-index" measure of expected near-term stock market volatility jumped 20 points to 30.71, its highest since August 2015.
"For the last several months, whether it's stocks or commodities, risk-takers had been the winners. And that's what hedge funds, which now manage $3.2 trillion, have been doing," Mitsubishi UFJ's Fujito said.
"Their leveraged position is now being unwound. And it seems as though there are still some people who haven't run away (from the sell-off) yet. I would expect more instability," he added.
Yoshinori Shigemi, market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, said the spectre of inflation will gradually undermine the attraction of equities even though the markets could rebound in the short term.
"In the end, the Fed will have to hike rates. And if it doesn't, long-dated bonds will be sold off on worries about inflation. Either way, that is going to slow down the economy. Rising wages also mean corporate profit margins will be squeezed gradually down the road," he said.
Keen to avoid further risk, investors are closing their positions in other assets, including the currency market where a popular strategy has been to sell the dollar against the euro and other currencies seen as benefiting from higher interest rates in the future.
The euro eased to $1.2353, not far from last week's low of $1.2335, a break of which could usher in a further correction after its rally to a 3-year high of $1.2538 by late last month.
Against the yen, which is often used as a safe-haven currency because of Japan's solid current account surplus, the dollar slipped 0.4 per cent to 108.56 yen, after having lost one per cent on Monday.
Bitcoin was not spared from selling, falling more than 10 per cent to a 12-week low of $6,116. That represented a 69 per cent fall from its record high of $19,666, touched on Dec. 17.
 Investors also dumped junk bonds, with the yield of Merrill Lynch US high yield index rising to 6.017 per cent from 5.964 per cent at the end of last week.
Still, it was far below its 2016 peak just above 10 per cent, when low oil prices hurt energy firms.
Oil prices also dropped, with international benchmark Brent futures hitting a one-month low. It last stood at $66.83 per barrel, down 1.2 per cent on the day.
US crude futures traded at $63.35 per barrel, down 1.3 per cent in Asia.

Global cues unleash bears, Sensex plunges by over 1,000 points

A massive downturn in the US and East Asian stock markets unleashed a selling frenzy in the Indian equity markets during the morning trade session on Tuesday. The two main indices of the Indian equity market -- S&P BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty50 -- corrected by around 3.30 per cent each, with the Sensex plunging by over 1,000 points. Market observers pointed-out that factors like the budgetary proposal to tax long-term gains on shares and concerns over the central government's fiscal prudence measures amplified the global downturn.
Just after the pre-open session, the barometer 30-scrip Sensitive Index of the BSE traded more than 1,000 points or 2.90 per cent lower from Monday's close. Similarly, the wider Nifty50 of the National Stock Exchange receded deep into the red.
It plunged by over 300 points or 3.00 per cent. At 10.30 a.m., the Sensex traded lower by 1,074.79 points or 3.09 per cent to 33,682.37 points from its previous close of 34,757.16 points. The NSE Nifty50 traded lower by 320.80 points or 3.01 per cent at 10,345.75 points.
"The unprecedented downfall in Dow yesterday (Monday) and combination of other negative factors like the high fiscal deficit projected and proposal on LTCG and fear of the stand that the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) will take during Wednesday's review has led to this melt-down or selling panic," Deepak Jasani, Head, Retail Research, HDFC Securities, told IANS.
"Not just India but globally this downturn has taken place due to the fear of high interest rates regime coming into the developed markets amid high valuations... On the domestic front other factors like high valuations, uncertainties on growth, inflation and interest rates and fears of RBI turning hawkish are unnerving investors."
According to Dhruv Desai, Director and Chief Operating Officer of Tradebulls, more "volatility" is expected and can last till Thursday.

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