Safe-haven flows boost dollar despite weak US data

Though the credit crisis began in the United States, the dollar has gained when global investors unwind risky trades in higher-yielding currencies and assets and reroute funds into U.S. Treasuries or cash.

That's been so even when unsettling news comes from the United States as on Thursday when data showed Mid-Atlantic regional factory activity plunged to an 18-year low while overall U.S. industrial output posted its biggest monthly slide since 1974.

That followed Wednesday's report showing U.S. retail sales fell sharply last month, stoking fear about American consumers and overshadowing government moves worldwide to kick-start lending and shock the financial system out of paralysis.

"Risk continues to dictate price moves in the currency market, much to the benefit of the dollar," said Ashraf Laidi, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in New York.

With risky assets out of vogue, "people are taking a break, going into cash, and as big funds go into neutral, it will support the dollar."

Late morning, the euro was down 0.4 percent at $1.3400. Even against the low-yielding yen, which also tends to gain in times of risk aversion, the dollar rose 0.8 percent to 100.39, though it was off a session peak of 101.38 yen. The euro edged up 0.3 percent to 134.70 yen.

Earlier, a report showing the number of Americans filing first-time jobless claims dropped in the latest week initially eased concern about the U.S. economy, but the data was offset by the industrial reports.

In the current environment, "frightened capital moves where it can be accommodated, not where it wishes, and where it can best be accommodated ... these days is the U.S. dollar," Dennis Gartman wrote in Thursday's edition of The Gartman Letter, a daily newsletter for investors.

Sterling gained 0.4 percent to $1.7242, boosted partly by a Bank of England move that makes it easier for British financial firms to borrow from the central bank.

Stocks slide, ECB rate cuts eyed

U.S. and European stocks fell sharply in choppy trade on Thursday, following an 11.4 percent plunge in Japan's Nikkei average.

News that the Swiss government was taking a 10 percent stake in bank UBS and that Hungary had received an emergency loan from the European Central Bank underlined persistent financial instability in Europe.

Laidi said expectations that the ECB will cut interest rates again this year had also weighed on the euro, which he said could retreat to the $1.30-$1.31 area by month end.

But he also said the safe-haven flows supporting the dollar won't last forever, either, and any sustained signs of looser global credit conditions could renew focus on U.S. weakness.

Kurt Karl, chief economist at Swiss Re in New York, said "this recession is going to be deeper than most expected a month or so ago, there's no way around it," adding "our forecast remains for a slide in the U.S. currency."