Dubai Plan 2040: Up to 550,000 new property units required

Residential property demand in Dubai will remain substantially strong over the next two decades, as the emirate will require almost the double of existing supply, because of a likely increase in the city’s population, according to industry analysts.

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According to the Dubai Statistics Centre, the supply of apartments and villas in Dubai is over 690,498 units as of 2020, catering to the city’s 3.4 million (m) population.

Analysts estimate that Dubai will require between 483,000 and 550,000 additional residential units over the next two decades to accommodate its estimated 5.4m population by 2040.

The requirement of new units is estimated between 24,150 and 27,500 a year.

Under the 2040 Urban Master Plan that was launched in early March, Dubai’s population is expected to increase from the existing 3.4m to 5.8m by 2040. The emirate will have five main urban centres, including two new ones.

“Assuming an approximate household size of 4.9 per unit based on the population estimate of 3,411,200 from Dubai statistic centre as of 2020, around 483,550 additional units will be required by 2040. This works out to around 24,000 units per year for the next 20 years,” said Prathyusha Gurrapu, Head of Research and Advisory at Core.

“Developing further on strong fundamentals, Dubai’s 2040 Urban Master Plan reinforces Dubai’s competitiveness as a global destination while creating an environment where people from around the world can thrive with sustainability, diversity and inclusiveness as key focus areas,” she added.

Taimur Khan, Associate Partner at Knight Frank, said the quantum of additional supply required over the next two decades is subjective and would be contingent on a number of quantitative and qualitative factors, some of which could see a marked change over the short to medium term.

“Currently, the total number of residential units in Dubai stands at around 555,000. To service the total expected population level by 2040, we’re likely to need this number roughly double,” said Khan.

Knight Frank estimates that the total number of apartments’ units in Dubai is at around 472,000.

Khan said developers would have to understand how household incomes could change going forward and what would be its impact on demand on new housing units.

“The likelihood is, whilst there will be a range of opportunities for developers from the affordable to the super-prime segments of the market, the middle-income segment of the market is likely to require the most significant quantum of supply to be delivered,” Khan added.

-waheedabbas@khaleejtimes.com