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Is 2026 really a buyer’s market? Dubai’s delivery data tells a different story
Delivery delays may limit supply, but informed buyers can still find opportunities by focusing on the right locations and timing
- PUBLISHED: Fri 16 Jan 2026, 12:10 PM
- By:
- Malak Saleh
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Buyers and investors eyeing properties in Dubai have been told to wait, that a flood of new homes is coming, and prices will finally ease. But walk the streets or scroll the listings, and the reality is different. Homes are still scarce, demand is steady, and in 2026, knowing where — and when — to buy will make all the difference.
Tens of thousands of homes are technically “planned”, yet far fewer are actually making it to handover. That gap is quietly shaping who has leverage in the market.
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According to delivery data tracked by Morgan’s International Realty, less than half of Dubai’s planned residential supply is expected to be completed this year. Out of 71,613 forecasted units, only 34,740 are likely to be delivered — well below headline forecasts and recent delivery norms.
Dubai has already seen how wide the gap can be between forecasts and reality. In 2025, the city was projected to deliver 37,171 residential units. By mid-year, 16,631 had been completed, and only around 6,265 more were on track for year-end, meaning just 62 per cent of anticipated handovers materialised.
Selective, Not Sweeping
With ready stock still limited and demand holding up, prices aren’t expected to soften across the board. Instead, 2026 looks less like a buyer’s market and more like a selective one — where the advantage goes to buyers who know where to look, what to avoid, and when negotiation power actually matters.
“Realistic deliveries remain below levels that would materially overwhelm absorption, which means the market is not structurally positioned to shift in buyers’ favour this year,” said Elias Hannoush, founder and CEO of Morgan’s International Realty.
Delivery numbers also remain below Dubai’s five-year annual average of roughly 35,500 completed units. “In that context, buyers shouldn’t expect market-wide discounts,” Hannoush said. “The main risk is assuming a market-wide advantage, when in reality delivery volumes remain structurally constrained relative to historical norms.” Even with plenty of units “on the books”, the actual supply reaching the market is limited, keeping competition high and negotiation opportunities selective.
Andrew Cummings, head of residential agency at Savills Middle East, echoes the point. “Traditionally, the anticipated numbers of unit handovers and the actual numbers are never the same. So, we don’t anticipate that every unit is going to be handed over in time,” he says, highlighting just how competitive the market remains for developers.
Hannoush is clear about the tipping point: there isn’t a magic number. “Price corrections occur when absorption fails to keep pace with completed supply,” he said. Based on current construction progress, deliveries in 2026 won’t reach that level. Buyers shouldn’t expect the broader market to swing in their favour. Leverage comes from knowing where supply is concentrated and acting strategically, Hannoush explained.
Short-lived Windows of Leverage
Certain pockets of Dubai can offer buyers some wiggle room. “Buyers may, at times, secure slightly better terms when a large development completes, and a meaningful number of units enter the market simultaneously,” Hannoush explains. These windows are brief, usually appearing in high-density, mid-market areas where multiple investor-driven projects finish around the same time. Once that initial wave of units is absorbed, competition kicks back in, and negotiation power fades. Timing and awareness are everything in these moments.
Buyer leverage isn’t uniform across the city. Hannoush says buyers “may encounter more flexibility, typically where delivery volumes are more concentrated, such as in high-density districts or within specific developments releasing a large number of similar units at once”.
Cummings emphasises the importance of research. “There are a lot of shiny objects,” he says, but smart buyers focus on the fundamentals: the developer’s track record, unit sizes, layouts, and location. At the end of the day, getting good returns isn’t just about the best payment plan — it’s about choosing the right property in the right neighbourhood at the right time.
That tends to happen in mid-market, investor-driven locations, like JVC and Business Bay, rather than across all price brackets. Villas and premium properties behave differently — limited turnover and strong differentiation keep negotiation power low
“I think we’re seeing, in different parts of the market, more supply is coming,” adds Cummings. “So, in the lower end of the market on the apartment side, as you start to get more apartments coming, that starts to soften that end of the market. At the same time, if you look at villas and townhouses, you know there is very little handing over over the next year in that space. So you know that will mean that there’s still a bit of a lack of supply.”
Top development zones will shape this dynamic. Jumeirah Village Circle leads with 16,852 units across 2025–27, making it the most active area in Dubai’s pipeline, according to Morgan’s International Realty. Business Bay follows with 10,127 units, then Azizi Venice with 7,860 units. These areas are projected to see elevated delivery volumes, requiring agile pricing strategies to maintain absorption — and giving buyers occasional leverage, but only briefly and locally.
Prices Aren’t “Artificially Elevated”
It’s tempting to call Dubai’s current prices “artificially high”, but Hannoush says that misses the point. Asset values constantly adjust: up when a property is undervalued, down when it loses appeal.
“When delivery volumes fall materially short of what was originally planned, the market avoids the kind of sudden oversupply that typically triggers sharp corrections,” he said. In strong markets, he adds, the first real warning sign isn’t handovers — it’s rental performance. “When properties struggle to lease or fail to generate sustainable income, owners reassess, resale and supply increases, hence prices adjust.” Right now, strong rental demand is keeping values supported, even as deliveries lag.
Waiting for 2027? Think Carefully
Many buyers are being told to “wait for 2027” for better deals. Hannoush is sceptical. “Based on delivery data alone, waiting is more likely to increase choices rather than automatically improve affordability,” he says. Higher delivery volumes expand options, but they don’t guarantee lower prices if demand, financing, and rental performance remain strong.
Affordability improves only when supply actually outpaces demand, leading to higher vacancies, lower rents, and increased resale competition. Still, there are exceptions: “More options can translate into better terms… particularly where a large volume of similar units is delivered within a short period of time, whether within a single development, location, or segment.” Those moments offer a temporary window to negotiate until the supply is absorbed.
The Morgan’s International Realty Dubai residential supply and delivery outlook report for 2025-27 projects a supply spike next year. Around 70,537 units are expected to be delivered, signalling a 27 per cent jump over the base forecast of 55,238. Hannoush warns this could shake up certain areas, slow the pace of home sales, and give buyers more negotiating power — especially in neighbourhoods where several new developments finish at the same time.
Cummings pushes back against waiting for 2027. “That question [of should I wait?] could be asked every year… basically no,” he says. “The point of real estate is to buy and hold. People shouldn’t be looking at Dubai real estate like it’s crypto. You’re not trying to buy and sell in six months.”
He sees a market that’s evolving differently from previous cycles. “I think the market is maturing in a very different way than it’s done before. This is not like previous cycles because it is a different cycle,” he says. Unlike the boom-and-bust swings of the past, the capital flowing into Dubai now is “much more long-term in nature”, meaning investors are playing the long game rather than chasing quick flips.
Balancing Forecasts and Reality
For buyers navigating 2026, Hannoush stresses that it’s not enough to look at forecasts or delivery numbers in isolation because both matter. “Real estate is a long-term investment, and buyers — particularly foreign investors without local market insight — need to approach decisions with structured, well-informed analysis,” he says.
Delivery data shows the near-term landscape: where supply pressures, competition, and pricing dynamics are concentrated. Supply forecasts provide a long-term lens: how much inventory is planned, where future density will concentrate, and how different districts may evolve. Understanding both helps investors avoid overpaying for or backing the wrong assets and focus on properties likely to hold value over time.
Picking the Right Property
The experts ruled that the biggest risk in 2026 isn’t overpaying or waiting. It’s picking the wrong property. “In markets where demand remains strong, and deliveries are constrained, prices tend to hold for well-positioned assets, while weaker or undifferentiated stock behaves very differently,” Hannoush says.
Wait without a plan, and you could miss out on a high-quality unit. Rush in without knowing what’s coming, and you might overpay. The takeaway is simple: focus on the right property, not the perfect moment.