Dubai property market to see slower handover in 2025–26; sharp rise expected in 2027

The Dubai property market is expected to experience a notable slowdown in residential unit handovers in 2025 and 2026, falling short of anticipated supply, according to a new report by Morgan’s International Realty.

The real estate firm estimates that only 62 per cent of the expected residential supply for 2025 will be delivered. Out of an anticipated 37,171 units, only 22,896 are projected to reach completion.

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The outlook is even more subdued for 2026, with just 48 per cent — or 34,740 out of 71,613 forecasted units — expected to be completed. In total, in both years, only 57,636 of the projected 108,784 units are likely to be delivered, representing a combined completion rate of approximately 53 per cent.

These figures reflect a persistent trend.

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According to Fitch Ratings, from 2022 to 2024, only 97,000 out of the 174,000 projected units were delivered — a completion rate of 56 per cent. Fitch attributes the lag in deliveries to factors such as difficulty in securing quality contractors, project sales timelines, funding delays from banks, and buyer payment issues.

“The rate of new unit delivery is influenced by various factors, including the availability of skilled labor and reliable contractors. Leading developers such as Emaar Development have a strong track record of timely project completion,” Fitch noted.

Dubai’s real estate market has witnessed a surge in demand in recent years, pushing both prices and rents to record highs. This growth has spurred unprecedented levels of property transactions. In the past year alone, Dubai recorded 226,000 transactions worth a combined Dh761 billion — a 36 per cent increase in volume and a 20 pe cent rise in value year-on-year.

Despite the influx of new developers entering the market, there remains a shortage of qualified contractors due to the sheer volume of projects launched over the past four years.

Key delivery areas in 2025-26

Morgan’s International Realty's Dubai Residential Supply and Delivery Outlook 2025–2027 report identifies the primary areas for residential handovers. In 2025, most new units will be delivered in Studio City, Sobha Hartland, Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC), Jumeirah Lake Towers (JLT) and Al Furjan.

For 2026, deliveries will be concentrated in JVC, Azizi Venice, Damac Lagoons, Business Bay and Arjan.

Surge in 2027 supply

The report projects a significant spike in residential deliveries in 2027, with approximately 70,537 units expected — nearly double Dubai’s five-year average of 35,531 units per year.

The bulk of this new supply will be located in JVC, Business Bay, Azizi Venice, Dubai Hills Estate and Creek Harbour.

“Jumeirah Village Circle remains the most active development zone across all three years, with 16,852 units scheduled for delivery between 2025 and 2027. This concentration of supply may exert downward pressure on prices due to potential oversupply,” said Elias Hannoush, Managing Director of Morgan’s International Realty.

Business Bay follows with 10,127 units, while Azizi Venice will see 7,860 units completed during the same period. The elevated supply in these areas could significantly impact pricing and absorption dynamics in the coming years.

Waheed Abbas

waheedabbas@khaleejtimes.com

Waheed Abbas is Assistant Editor, covering real estate, aviation and other business stories that directly affect the lives of UAE consumers. He frequently reports human interest stories, too.