Gold’s relentless surge signals a new era of safe-haven investing

Gold demand surged to an unprecedented level in the third quarter of 2025 as investors worldwide sought refuge from rising geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures and global economic uncertainty.

 The World Gold Council’s latest data shows that total demand, including over-the-counter transactions, reached 1,313 tonnes valued at $146 billion — the highest quarterly total on record — underscoring gold’s status not just as a crisis hedge, but as a core store-of-value asset in portfolios.

Recommended For You

'Grey's Anatomy' actor James Pickens Jr reveals prostate cancer diagnosis

Ittihad successfully prices $550 million 5-year non-call 2 144a/Reg S Sukuk

UAE unveils plans for Antarctica research base, mulls acquiring ice-breaker

Appinventiv expands Middle East presence with new Dubai office to support GCC clients

Dubai Airshow 2025: Flydubai orders 60 GE engines for Boeing aircraft

 

The surge was driven most notably by investment flows which rose 47 per cent year-on-year to 537 tonnes, accounting for more than half of all gold demand during the period. Investors across regions responded to a confluence of concerns — weakening growth indicators, currency volatility, complex conflict dynamics and doubts about the sustainability of equity market valuations.

Stay up to date with the latest news. Follow KT on WhatsApp Channels.

As gold approached the symbolic $4,000-per-ounce mark, momentum buying was amplified by what traders described as “fear of missing out", reinforcing a cycle in which rising prices attracted yet more capital inflows.

“Gold is not just rising because markets are turbulent. It is rising because the world’s financial architecture is undergoing a subtle but profound shift — one in which investors, households and governments alike are returning to gold’s timeless role as the ultimate anchor of wealth,” says Sajith Kumar P.K., CEO and managing director of IBMC Financial Professionals Group.

Physically backed gold exchange-traded funds continued to play a central role in this shift. The quarter saw inflows of 222 tonnes, equivalent to $26 billion, marking a third consecutive quarter of accumulation. Year-to-date, ETF holdings have risen by 619 tonnes — the strongest pace since early 2020.

North American funds accounted for more than half the additions, followed by vehicles listed in Europe and Asia, indicating a broad structural move to hold gold in institutional and multi-asset fund portfolios. Rather than representing short-term speculation, analysts say this marks a quiet but decisive reweighting of global asset allocation models.

Retail demand painted a similar picture. Bar and coin investment rose 17 per cent to 316 tonnes, with households in India and China — two of the world’s largest physical gold markets — contributing the most. Indian buyers purchased 92 tonnes, while Chinese retail investors acquired 74 tonnes, reflecting intensified efforts to preserve savings against currency depreciation risks and uncertainty in local property and equity markets. In these economies, gold remains not merely an investment but a financial anchor that is deeply cultural, private and intergenerational.

The Middle East saw particularly notable strength. The UAE, long established as one of the world’s major bullion trading hubs, recorded strong investment-linked jewellery and physical bullion buying, especially among family offices and private wealth investors seeking safe-haven diversification. Though high prices have moderated some discretionary jewellery consumption, Dubai’s role as a global gold refining, vaulting and re-export centre has further solidified as regional investors reposition wealth into tangible assets.

At the same time, however, the record price environment weighed heavily on global jewellery demand, which fell 19 per cent year-on-year. Although India and China both experienced quarter-to-quarter seasonal rebounds, overall affordability challenges remained. Gold jewellers in emerging markets report that consumers are willing to purchase but are adjusting weight, purity and design preferences to align with higher cost levels.

Central banks continued to act as significant buyers, adding 220 tonnes in the quarter — a 28 per cent increase over the previous quarter — even as prices tested new highs. Year-to-date official sector purchases have reached 634 tonnes, reinforcing the ongoing structural trend of sovereign diversification away from reserve currencies, particularly the US dollar. This sustained official demand is viewed as one of the most important long-term stabilising forces in the gold market.

The supply side expanded modestly, with total supply also reaching 1,313 tonnes, up three per cent from a year earlier. Mine production edged higher to 977 tonnes, while recycling rose to 344 tonnes. Notably, despite record prices, recycling volumes did not surge, indicating that investors are holding — not cashing out — in expectation of further gains.

The US Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point interest rate reduction added another layer of support to gold prices. By lowering the benchmark rate to the 3.75–4.00 per cent range, the Fed eased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold and placed renewed downward pressure on the dollar.

Gold prices responded with a modest uptick, rising around 0.6 per cent to nearly $3,953 per ounce. However, the more cautious language from the Fed regarding future cuts injected some volatility, highlighting that gold’s immediate price path will remain sensitive to central bank communication as much as to data.

Private banking and wealth management strategists now increasingly describe gold as transitioning from a defensive holding to a primary component of long-term asset preservation.

 Analysts at Standard Chartered note that the market appears to be in the early phase of a multi-year structural bull cycle, driven by strong sovereign demand, ongoing global political realignment, and persistent uncertainty over real-world and digital financial systems. Emirates NBD Research adds that the most critical driver remains real yields: if inflation proves sticky while growth slows, the environment becomes decisively supportive for gold.

Issac John

Staff Writer

issacjohn@khaleejtimes.com

Issac John is Managing Editor at Khaleej Times and has over 45 years of experience in top-tier newspapers across UAE. A seasoned business writer and economic analyst, he brings unmatched insight into the geopolitics and geoeconomics shaping the Gulf and India.