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Market may face a deeper plunge

KARACHI - THE mid-week strong rally failed to extend itself on the Karachi share market last week as cap on margins of oil marketing companies and 2.5 per cent cut in duty on refineries triggered panic selling and reversed the fresh potential rallies.

The KSE 100-share index was down 860.78 points at 10,171.39 as compared to 11,032.17 a week earlier as most of the base shares suffered fresh fall.

The market seems to be well on the road of a sustained recovery after the uncertainty over new monetary policy was removed after one per cent increase in the discount rate to 13 per cent.

The initial investor reaction to the policy was positive on the perception that 100 basis point increase in the interest rate was in line with market expectations and it may not have any adverse impact on share trading.

But the rally faltered half way on snap selling from all the quarters after the cap on oil companies margins and cut in deemed duty on refineries paved the way for panic selling especially in oil sector.

Analyst Faisal A. Rajabali said a spate of negative news indicate that the market could face a deeper plunge when the trading resumes next week.

Elaborating, he said rumours of margin calls on some of the leading brokerage houses, reports about Pakistan credit rating and persistent foreign selling may keep the market under pressure.

"All eyes are now focused on the possible intervention of the newly set up Rs25 billion equity market support fund whether or not it play its role as a market rescuer," he added.

Investors were also worried over the situation in the tribal areas. News from the political front were not that encouraging, which continued to cause capital flight, he said.

Some brokers said dividend and bonus share announcements by some of the leading companies i-e Fauji Fertiliser, Dawood Hercules, Arif Habib Securities and International Industries were on higher side of analysts prediction but other negative factor neutralised their positive impact.

The question now being asked is whether the market will follow its own technical demands or play to the tune of political developments, some analysts said. "One should not jump to hasty conclusions at this stage as the snap rally could be deceptive," they added.

"The fear of tight monetary policy to tame inflation and contain trade and budget deficits has eroded share values by 5.34 per cent, wiping out Rs175 billion from the market capital on panic selling," analyst Hasnain Asghar Ali said.

"The market needed an excuse to respond to its technical demands and that came in the form of below market expectations hike in the interest rate," he added.

He said one per cent increase in the rate is in line with analysts perceptions and well adjustable in a highly oversold market viewed in the backdrop of CFS and CFS MK-2 prevailing interest rates on the forward counter.

"The market has been in a highly oversold position owing to a protracted bearish spell weighed down by negative news and needed correction, which came in the form of short-covering," analyst Ahsan Mehanti said.