Indian investors await global cues, inflation data

mumbai - Equity markets will also be affected by the rupee's movement and direction of foreign funds' flow

Risk emanating out of the growing geo-political tensions between the US and North Korea, along with the ongoing domestic quarterly results season, is expected to influence Indian equity markets' movement during the truncated week starting from August 14.

According to market observers, investors will look out for other major factors such as macro-economic inflation data, the rupee's movement and direction of foreign funds' flow.

"Markets would closely track the geo-political risks emanating from the US-North Korea tensions. The global risk appetite remains key for markets in the short term," Devendra Nevgi, chief executive of Zyfin Advisors, said.

"Domestic institutional investors continue to support the markets, taking advantage of the recent dip. In other words, the market would be driven by global risk, support from domestic flows and earnings this week."

Investors' risk-taking appetite is expected to be hampered by the subdued industrial output figures which were released after market hours last Friday.

"The Index of Industrial Production figures were not exciting and the government's mid-year economic survey cited new risks which can hinder economic growth," Nevgi said.

The ongoing quarterly earning results from the likes of Coal India, Future Consumer, Tata Power, Hindustan Zinc and LIC Housing Finance will play a major role in the general market dynamics.

"Currently, domestic confidence has fallen given Sebi's action over shell companies which impacts the near-term liquidity," said Vinod Nair, head of research, Geojit Financial Services. "However, the markets will be more concerned on any slowdown in business growth which will lead to downgrade in earnings' forecast for the next one to two quarters."

Apart from quarterly results, macro-economic inflation gauges - Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) - and the country's trade deficit data will be keenly watched by investors.

"Going ahead, markets will also take cues from CPI and WPI inflation data. Any escalation of geopolitical tensions will have a bearing on the market," Nair said.

On technical levels, the NSE Nifty's underlying trend has turned bearish with further downsides expected.

"Technically, with the Nifty correcting sharply this week and breaking the recent supports in the process, the underlying short-term trend has turned down," Deepak Jasani, head, retail research, HDFC Securities, said.

"Further downsides are likely early this week once the immediate supports of 9,668 points are broken. Pullback rallies could find resistance at 9,913 points."

Last week, key equity indices - the Sensex and the Nifty50 - dived into the negative territory for the first time after five consecutive weeks of gains on the back of negative global cues, subdued quarterly earnings and foreign fund outflows.

The 30-scrip Sensitive Index (Sensex) of the BSE declined by 3.40 per cent to close at 31,213.59 points. - IANS