India eyes $10t economy as GCCs drive new growth wave

India is poised to become a $10 trillion economy within the next decade, driven by transformative shifts across technology, talent, and global integration.

A key pillar of this growth trajectory is the rapid rise of Global Capability Centres (GCCs), which are set to contribute as much as $500 billion in gross value added to the Indian economy while creating jobs for up to 25 million people.

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Speaking at the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) GCC Summit, Gunjan Samtani, co-chairman of Goldman Sachs India, highlighted the country’s emerging centrality to global economic progress. “Sixty-five per cent of the global growth between now and 2035 will come from emerging markets, and India stands out as a bright spot,” he said. “India will become the fastest-growing economy globally, reaching a $10 trillion milestone in the next decade.”

Samtani noted that India’s demographic dividend, a strong pool of STEM graduates, and growing expertise in artificial intelligence (AI) will be instrumental in unlocking this potential. “As the global tech spending crosses $4.92 trillion by 2025, India’s AI Mission will play a vital role in placing the country at the heart of the fourth industrial revolution,” he added.

The fastest-growing major global economy is on track to surpass Germany by 2028 to become the world’s third-largest economy, according to recent forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). With a targeted compound annual nominal GDP growth rate of 9.0 per cent from 2025 to 2047, India aims to add nearly $1 trillion to its GDP every 12 to 18 months — a feat few economies have ever managed.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, also addressing the CII Summit, said that India’s GCC ecosystem is undergoing a fundamental transformation. “From back-office support functions, GCCs in India are now evolving into strategic centres of excellence — driving research, innovation, and leadership,” she said. “GCCs today contribute around $68 billion or 1.6 per cent of GDP in gross value added. By 2030, this contribution could rise to between $100 billion and $150 billion.”

The growth momentum has been nothing short of exponential. India added 1,000 GCCs between 2015 and 2024, with one new centre being set up nearly every week in 2024 alone. The current workforce of 2.16 million employed by these centres is projected to grow to 2.80 million by 2030. Sitharaman called these projections “conservative” and underscored the importance of retaining this competitive edge. “India cannot afford to lose the GCC advantage,” she said.

What gives India a unique edge is its deep reservoir of technical talent. As per official data, the country now accounts for 32 per cent of the global GCC talent pool, 28 per cent of the world’s STEM workforce, and 23 per cent of global software engineering talent. This has made India indispensable for global enterprises looking to expand their digital capabilities, particularly in areas such as AI, cybersecurity, cloud infrastructure, and enterprise software development.

India’s commitment to ease of doing business is also propelling this momentum. The Finance Minister outlined several pro-business reforms, including efforts to reduce approval timelines, enhance tax certainty (notably around Advance Pricing Agreements), and foster cross-ministerial coordination. She also encouraged investments in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities, citing GIFT City as a model for integrated infrastructure and regulatory facilitation.

“India must not lose this opportunity,” Sitharaman concluded, reiterating the government’s commitment to supporting the next generation of GCC-led economic growth.

According to consultancy firm McKinsey & Company, India’s GCC landscape already includes more than 1,580 centres operated by global multinationals across sectors such as banking, healthcare, technology, and retail. These centres have matured from transactional hubs into strategic units overseeing innovation, customer experience, analytics, and emerging technologies.

Analysts agree that as supply chain diversification, digital transformation, and the search for skilled talent continue to dominate boardroom priorities worldwide, India is exceptionally well-placed. “What we are seeing is not just economic growth, but a structural shift in how India is being integrated into the world economy,” said Ankur Pahwa, partner at EY India.

Issac John

Staff Writer

issacjohn@khaleejtimes.com

Issac John is Managing Editor at Khaleej Times and has over 45 years of experience in top-tier newspapers across UAE. A seasoned business writer and economic analyst, he brings unmatched insight into the geopolitics and geoeconomics shaping the Gulf and India.