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India cuts petrol, diesel prices as economy flags

The 10 percent cut in gasoline prices and a near 6 percent decrease in diesel were announced by the oil minister, Murli Deora, ahead of an expected cut in short-term interest rates this weekend as New Delhi seeks to keep its economy growing.

The measures, well after Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia trimmed their own domestic prices, will also further reduce inflation that has fallen from a high of almost 13 percent in early August to just over 8 percent.

But lower prices will trim earnings for state-owned refiners like Indian Oil Corp and BPCL, which were just starting to enjoy profitability after years of mounting losses from selling heavily discounted fuel as crude prices surged.

“On the inflation point of view, yes this is positive, but it is going to hit the profitability of the oil companies,” said Sachchidanand Shukla, economist at Enam Securities in Mumbai.

“They are now making profit of 12-14 rupees per litre for petrol and three rupees for diesel, which is going to be eroded.”

The government regulates and partly subsidises prices of widely consumed fuels.

After the cuts announced by Deora, the price of petrol in New Delhi will be 45.6 rupees ($0.92), while diesel will cost 32.86 rupees a litre. Rates vary across the country depending on local taxes.

“It will give comfort to the government that wholesale price inflation by the end of the fiscal year (next March) will probably come off to 5 or 5.5 percent,” said Sailesh Jha, senior regional economist at Barclays Capital, Singapore.

Trade Minister Kamal Nath said lower central bank rates and an interest subsidy on bank loans for exporters were expected to be included in the stimulus package to be unveiled on Saturday.

Analysts said the package would help the economy.

“It will definitely help in limiting the downside risks to growth and it is required at this juncture. You can’t wait for the situation to worsen further,” said D.K. Joshi, principal economist at domestic ratings agency CRISIL in Mumbai.

Elections

General elections early next year would be a key consideration for the ruling coalition, analysts said.

“It’s a very populist step. It really relates to everything: people, passengers, consumer goods,” said Kuldip Nayar, a political analyst.

The Congress party-led government, reeling from last week’s attacks in Mumbai and worried by a slowing economy, may be able to claw back some support, said D.H. Pai Panandikar, president of RPG Foundation, a private think-tank.

“Of course it will, and that is probably one of the main considerations,” he said.

Both the government and central bank are widely expected to unveil more aggressive measures to bolster slowing economic growth, with the bank planning a news conference at 12:00 p.m. (0630 GMT) in Mumbai on Saturday.

The central bank has already reduced its main lending rate by 150 basis points to 7.5 percent since Oct. 20 to counter the impact of the global financial crisis on Asia’s third-largest economy, whose exports and lending have been hard hit.

India last cut domestic fuel prices in February 2007, and rates had remained unchanged since a 10 percent rise in June as the government gave state refiners time to recoup some losses, resisting a knee-jerk cut to match the slump in crude oil prices lest they rebound just as swiftly.

Crude oil, which soared to a record above $147 a barrel in July, fell below $44 on Friday to is lowest in nearly four years.