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Gulf oil output likely to reach about 26m bbl/d by 2010

ABU DHABI - The Arabian Gulf oil production is expected to reach about 26 million bbl/d by 2010, and 35 million bbl/d by 2020, compared to about 21.7 million bbl/d in 2000.

This would increase the Gulf oil production capacity to 33 per cent of the world total by 2020, up from 28 per cent in 2000, according to the Energy Information Administration’s International Energy Outlook 2003.

In 2003, the Gulf countries — Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates and Iran, Iraq produced about 27 per cent of the world's oil, while holding 57 per cent-715 billion barrels of the world's crude oil reserves. OECD gross oil imports from Gulf countries averaged about 11.6 million barrels per day (bbl/d) during 2003, accounting for 46 per cent of the OECD’s total net oil imports. Besides oil, the Gulf region also has huge reserves -2,462 trillion cubic feet (tcf), of natural gas, accounting for 45 per cent of total proven world gas reserves.

The Gulf contains 715 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, representing over half 57 per cent of the world's oil reserves, and 2,462 tcf of natural gas reserves-45 per cent of the world total. Also, at the end of 2003, Gulf countries maintained about 22.9 million bbl/d of oil production capacity, or 32 per cent of the world total. Perhaps even more significantly, the Gulf countries normally maintain almost all of the world's excess oil production capacity. As of early September 2004, excess world oil production capacity was only about 0.5-1.0 million bbl/d, all of which was located in Saudi Arabia.

In 2003, Gulf countries and Iran, Iraq had estimated net oil exports of 17.2 million bbl/d of oil. Saudi Arabia exported the most oil of any Gulf country in 2003, with an estimated 8.40 million bbl/d (49 per cent of the total). Also, Iran had estimated net exports of about 2.6 million bbl/d, 15 per cent, followed by the United Arab Emirates (2.4 million bbl/d - 14), Kuwait (2.0 million bbl/d - 12), Iraq (0.9 million bbl/d - 9), Qatar (0.9 million bbl/d - 5), and Bahrain (0.01 million bbl/d - 0.1 per cent).