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Gold prices in Dubai: Will 24K hit Dh600 per gram again?
Analysts say Middle East conflict, the US dollar, US Treasury debt buyback policies, and US interest rates will determine whether gold revisits Dh600
- PUBLISHED: Sun 23 Aug 2026, 10:23 AM
Gold prices crossed Dh550 per gram in Dubai over the weekend as the precious metal hit a 90-day high on bullish technicals and a weaker dollar.
The 24K gold price has risen approximately Dh70 per gram in Dubai in August so far. But will the precious metal price reach Dh600 again, the level it achieved in late January 2026?
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Analysts say both bullish and bearish factors such as the Middle East war, falling jewellery demand and weakening of the dollar will influence the precious metal.
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On Friday, spot gold closed at $4,603 per ounce over the weekend, gaining 1.99 per cent.
In the UAE, 24K and 22K gold prices rose to Dh554.75 and Dh513.75 per gram, respectively, over the weekend. Among the other variants of the precious metal, 21K, 18K and 14K closed higher at Dh492.5, Dh422.25 and Dh329.25 per gram, respectively.
Naeem Aslam, CIO, Zaye Capital Markets, said the immediate gold-price ecosystem is being driven by a combination of lower Treasury yields, US dollar weakness and persistent policy uncertainty.
US President Donald Trump’s three-day pause on proposed 50 per cent tariffs against Canada following an announced trade agreement reduces one near-term source of economic friction and could temporarily soften demand for defensive assets, he said.
“However, his comments on Iran and continuing geopolitical uncertainty preserve an important safe-haven premium. Meanwhile, the emphasis on maintaining US leadership in AI, technology and digital assets can strengthen broader risk appetite, but those themes do not directly remove gold's sensitivity to real yields, currency moves, fiscal conditions and geopolitical hedging,” he said.
The bond and currency channels remain particularly important for gold prices. Long-dated US Treasury yields fell sharply after debt-buyback operations were increased to $4 billion per operation from $2 billion.
“The trade-policy pause may remove part of the immediate haven bid, but elevated fiscal concerns, Middle East uncertainty and questions over the direction of US monetary policy continue to provide competing sources of support. The result is a market where the direction of yields and the dollar can generate significant short-term moves even when geopolitical risk remains broadly unchanged,” he said.
Overlapping forces support the market
He noted that the gold market is being supported by several overlapping forces rather than one single catalyst.
“Geopolitical tension is increasing demand for portfolio protection, softer inflation components are keeping future rate cuts in discussion, weak housing activity shows that restrictive financial conditions are still working, and stable business inflation expectations reduce the risk of a fresh broad inflation shock outside energy. For gold, the most important variables now are real yields, the US dollar and oil prices,” he added.
Samer Hasn, senior market analyst at xs.com, said gold’s recovery comes amid a new phase in the market capital cycle, as the market witnesses a shift from high-yield US Treasury bonds toward alternative assets, amid uncertainty clouding the fixed income market.
“This move followed the US Treasury Secretary's announcement of a plan to double long-term Treasury bond buybacks to lower yields, which seems to have met widespread negativity in the market, alongside growing concerns about the sustainability of US public debt, which reached a new threshold of $40 trillion,” he said.
Importantly, Hasn said inflows toward physical gold exchange-traded funds also contributed to feeding the upward trend, including $2 billion by SPDR Gold Shares (GLD).
Middle East risks cut both ways
“Against this bullish narrative for gold, high-risk bearish factors should not be overlooked, especially those coming from the Middle East. The region is currently in a gray area of no peace and no war, as the path of negotiations appears blocked on one hand, while the risks of multi-front military escalation remain high on the other. US President Donald Trump appears to have chosen not to be dragged into escalation until after the midterm elections scheduled for next November, which will be followed by pivotal elections in Israel as well, as Trump may not wish to go through these elections amidst extremely high prices for gasoline and diesel and bond yields that affect long-term borrowing costs,” he said, adding that instead, Trump has now chosen the path of economic pressure on Iran in hopes of forcing it back to negotiations and making concessions regarding the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear programme, or even bringing down the regime.
Hasn noted that the Middle East war risks could involve reimposing limits on capital flow toward gold, not only due to inflation risks and high bond yields whose impact has begun to diminish, but also in light of declining investment liquidity in the Middle East and Asia.
In addition, as World Gold Council data showed, global investment for gold and demand for jewellery fell in the second quarter of this year.
During wartime, according to Hasn, individuals may prefer liquidity to cover essential expenses, or non-dollar-pegged national currencies may lose value, which may prevent liquidity from flowing into investments, including gold.
