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Will UAE petrol prices rise in March as oil gains due to US-Iran tensions?
US-Iran conflict dominates the oil market, and prices are bloated with a decent geopolitical risk premium, said an expert
- PUBLISHED: Wed 25 Feb 2026, 5:00 AM UPDATED: Wed 25 Feb 2026, 9:08 AM
Petrol prices in the UAE could rise in March 2026 due to an increase in global prices in February amid ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran.
Oil prices rose globally in February due to fears around US-Iran military conflict, with Brent crossing the $71 per barrel mark.
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Some analysts said if the geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran escalate, it could push oil prices above $100 a barrel.
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On Tuesday evening, Brent and WTI were trading at $66.31 and $71.38 per barrel, respectively. The average closing price of Brent was $68.9 barrel in February, compared to $63.47 last month.
For the month of February, the UAE reduced petrol prices by around eight or nine fils per litre, pricing Super 98, Special 95 and E-Plus 91 at Dh2.45, Dh2.33 and Dh2.26 per litre, respectively.
Norbert Rücker, head of economics and next generation research, Julius Baer, said the US-Iran conflict dominates the oil market, and prices are bloated with a decent geopolitical risk premium.
“A military clash seems inevitable, but such an escalation does not necessarily come hand-in-hand with oil supply disruption, as the past years have shown on multiple occasions. More importantly, today’s oil market is very supply-resilient, thanks to ample storage, production exceeding consumption, and spare output capacity,” he said.
“While we are unsure whether the current bounce will top out in the high $70s or high $80s, we have more confidence in the view that the risk premium will wane and oil prices return to below $60 towards mid-year. Amidst today’s geopolitics, we stick to our neutral view,” said Julius Baer’s head of economics.
As reported by Khaleej Times earlier, insurance premiums for the Strait of Hormuz went up recently after Tehran closed the strait for a few hours, causing concerns about the impact on oil supply.
“Oil markets have also come back into focus as tensions in the Middle East intensify. Brent crude has moved above the $70 level, supported by rising geopolitical risk. Iran’s strategic position near the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20 per cent of global oil supply flows — means any disruption could have significant consequences,” said Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com.
