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UAE petrol prices set to fall in July after 4-month gain as oil plunges over $20
Fuel prices have risen by more than 60 per cent due to the US-Israel-Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz
- PUBLISHED: Thu 25 Jun 2026, 8:31 AM
Petrol prices in the UAE could see a significant drop for the month of July 2026 following four months of consecutive rises, as global oil rates have dropped more than $20 a barrel since the beginning of the month.
Since the outbreak of the Middle East war on February 28, retail fuel prices in the UAE have been on the rise, jumping more than 60 per cent.
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In June 2026, retail fuel prices were increased by around eight per cent month-on-month with Super 98 priced at Dh3.95 a litre, Special 95 at Dh3.83 per litre, and E-Plus 91 at Dh3.76 per litre.
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With global oil prices trending downward throughout June, there are strong expectations that retail fuel prices will drop next month.
Brent was trading around $95 a barrel in the first week of June, falling to less than $74 a barrel on Wednesday due to the US-Iran peace deal and market expectations of Gulf oil supply returning to the global energy markets with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The average Brent closing price was around $106 a barrel in May due to the US-Israel-Iran war and it fell to around $71 a barrel in June 2026.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said oil prices have continued to retreat, with Brent crude falling below $76 per barrel to trade only around 7.5 per cent above the $70 ceiling that capped prices before the Strait of Hormuz disruption.
"The move lower may appear counterintuitive given that the world has just experienced the largest oil supply disruption on record, resulting in an estimated 1.3 billion barrels of lost production from the Middle East. However, in the short term, the market is no longer focused on the barrels that were lost. Instead, attention has shifted to the barrels that may soon return," he said.
With shipping traffic steadily improving through the Strait of Hormuz, Hansen added, traders are increasingly focused on a growing queue of cargoes waiting to move.
"Millions of barrels are already loaded on tankers that were unable to leave the Gulf during the disruption, while hundreds of additional vessels remain positioned outside the region waiting to load. The result is a potential surge of supply entering the market at a time when buyers are showing signs of caution," he added.
Norbert Rücker, head of economics and next generation research, Julius Baer, said the snap-back on the oil market is astonishing.
"Based on ship-tracking data and anecdotal news, oil seems to be flushing out of the Middle East. Exports are likely back above 80 per cent of the pre-crisis normal, which suggests that the market has flipped from deficit to surplus. Emptied storage could sooner than expected begin to refill. This process takes time and should lend some support to prices, before the storage surplus likely returns next year," he added.
